Incompetence Begets Incompetence

            The Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot.  They are so caught up in achieving a “gotcha” with the Obama administration that they cannot see the forest for the trees.  Sometimes, incompetence is just incompetence.  For example, the way the Benghazi attack was handled was incompetent.  For the Republicans to be barking up the Benghazi tree is stupid.

It is just another tree.  And, if you look at all the trees the Republicans are barking at you begin to see the forest.  That forest is called “Angry White Men”. 

Was the rewording of the Benghazi talking points political?  Probably, but was the failure to respond with any military action done with malicious intent?  Most Americans do not believe so.  Most Americans believe that it was pure incompetence.  If the Republicans want to assist in curing the administration’s incompetence, the American people would be pleased.  Americans are not pleased with the never-ending bickering that the Republicans continue to dribble out day after day.

This past weekend, the New York Times reported that the average time from nomination to Senate confirmation for Obama’s appointees is 510 days.  The story sheds more light than I am providing here.  After reading the article I (a conservative) was convinced that the delays are politically motivated.  Note to Republicans:  the President won the election and he now gets to choose his nominees.

The latest Republican bickering is accusing the IRS of intentionally scrutinizing tax exemption applications for organizations with the terms “Tea Party” or “Patriots” in their name.  Okay, some underling of the administration screwed up.  It’s the government, of course there is incompetence.  The problem is that there is so much incompetence that the Republicans believe that it is not incompetence.  Rather; it is well planned political maneuvering.  Really???

So to sum it up, the total incompetence of the current administration has so confused the Republicans that they have not changed their behavior since losing the last election.  And, let us not forget that it was the “Angry White Men” behavior that contributed heavily to that last defeat.

Incompetence begets incompetence.

The Real Suspect Number 1: North Korea

            Now that the sensation of the Boston Bombing is behind us, we should return to some of the other problems facing our great nation.  North Korea is a good place to start.  The saga of North Korea’s promises, threats, and reneging on deals is laid out in line-by-line, excruciating detail on the Arms Control Association’s website that can be found at:  http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

What that website demonstrates (if you have the time to read all of it) is that the North Korean’s have never negotiated in good faith.  They have consistently made promises to get the United States to provide them with food aid, nuclear plant development, and economic aid – only to later back out of their promises.

The United States has bent over backwards in multiple attempts to bring the North Korea regime into the world community of peaceful nations.  Each attempt has been thwarted by a regime that is so totally incompetent that its people are starving while they maintain one of the largest armies in the world.  North Korea maintains a standing army of 1.1M.  Compare that against the United States that maintains a standing army of 500K.  Now consider the fact that the United States has a population of 330M whereas the population of North Korea is 25M.

The North Korean’s have repeatedly used “negotiations” to gain food and economic aid in order to maintain their ongoing, incompetent management of a failing society.  They have gone too far.  It is time that the world stops the insanity of negotiating with a regime that only takes what it can get with a promise and then never delivers on their promises.

The world is a crazy place.  On Sunday the New York Times reported that Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the United States is pledging $123 million to fund the Syrian rebels.  The Sunday New York Times also reported that President Obama and President Putin of Russia had a congenial phone call regarding participation on international terrorism prevention (this story was related to the Russian ties of the Boston terrorists).  This is the same Russia that is arming the Syrian government and propping up the Syrian regime that we are providing millions of dollars to bring down.  However, President Obama and President Putin can hold a congenial phone conversation regarding terrorism as if we are on the same team.

The same craziness exists in our relationship with China.  We love the Chinese for lending us about $2 trillion so that we can purchase the products made in their factories using trade secretes that the Chinese stole from our businesses.  We are constantly courting the Chinese to be better trade partners.  At the same time, the Chinese are propping up the North Korean regime because the Chinese do not want the US army that is parked in South Korea to be in North Korea on the border with China.  Yes, the world is a crazy place.

Let us think about the North Korean problem from a common sense viewpoint.  The United States does not want North Korea to expand its nuclear arsenal, nor does it want North Korea to further develop missile technology that could deliver one of their nuclear bombs to the shores of the United States.  China does not want the US army in their back entrance way.  China also wants to avoid refugees streaming into China due to the collapse of the North Korean economy, which is imminent.  The North Korean leaders want money and power.  It is a shame that the North Korean leaders cannot be bought with money alone – we could do that quickly.  However, people with egos big enough to maintain a totalitarian society for as long as the North Korean’s have do it for more than money – they love the ego trip the power gives them.

Okay, we need to strike a deal with China (not North Korea) to get this problem solved.  The Chinese love the strong economy of South Korea.  It provides the Chinese with a strong market where they can sell their goods.  North Korea on the other hand, is a drain on China.  China has to supply North Korea with free oil just to keep them afloat (and to prevent a wave of refugees into China).

The deal with China is simple:  we agree that we will (based on conditions) never move our military North of the current DMZ and, we will provide huge economic assistance to develop the North Korean economy.  Both we and China put up enough money to buy off the North Korean leaders and China finds places of status for Kim Jong-un and his top military leaders (within China’s government, state-run businesses, and/or military).  South Korea and North Korea are reunited with the government of South Korea assimilating the people of North Korea much the same way that West Germany assimilated the people of East Germany at the end of the cold war.

We get rid of the nuclear threat and bad role model for the rest of the world that North Korea has become.  The Chinese get a larger market to sell to (as the new Korea becomes even more of a consumer market than South Korea is alone).  The refugees remain in North Korea due to the promise of a better future.  And, more importantly, the poor people of North Korea gain freedom and economic opportunity that their dictators have denied them for years.

The conditions we set for never moving our military North of the DMZ are simple: China signs a peace treaty with the new Korea that includes China’s recognition of the new Korea as a sovereign state and the Chinese do not interfere with the new Korea.  Once this occurs, the United States provides humanitarian relief to the people of North Korea and our businesses take on the effort of developing the economy along with the businesses of South Korea.

No more negotiations with North Korea.  It is time for three-party negotiations: the United States, China, and South Korea. 

Goodbye Kim Jong-un.

Note to the Republican Party: Do NOT Panic, Obamacare is Your Savior!

            I just got back from a month vacation in New Zealand.  While getting caught up on the news, I saw the Republican Party in full panic mode.  The newscast I watched showed several members of a committee that did a “postmortem” of the 2012 election.  The committee made some good points:  the 2012 election message was that the Republican Party was un-inclusive – the party of old white guys.  Who cares about those 47 percenters anyway?  (To prevent any trouble: please note that the last sentence is sarcasm.) 

Contrary to the postmortem committees view, I believe that the Grand Old Party needs a tune-up, not an entire makeover.

By the way, one point made by the postmortem committee was that the Republicans needed to speak more to women's issues.  BS!  Women’s issues are the same as the rest of Americans’ issues.  The Republican message was anti-gay, anti-poor, and anti-Hispanic.  It was NOT anti-women.

Yes, I am aware that the Republican message was a hand-up: not a hand-out.  However, it was delivered so poorly that it came across as anti-poor: even anti-middle-class.

The Republicans need to separate moral value judgments from policy making.  For example, if the religious zealots cannot accept gay marriage, then do not allow anyone to be “married” by a government entity.  Heterosexual and homosexual couples can both get (equally legal) civil unions from their local government.  If a couple (of either persuasion) wants to get married, they should go to their place of worship.  The Republicans can surely figure out a way of being fiscally conservative while retaining the “silent majority” of far right Christian voters.

The “civil unions for everybody” was my proposed solution before the 2012 election and it was included in my book.  Had the Republican Party used my book as its platform (and put forth a candidate that could connect with real people) we would not be having a postmortem of the 2012 election.  My book also defines America’s role in foreign affairs.  It is not in line with Senator Rand Paul’s views – but I do not believe that the Republicans should become the isolationists’ party.  Have we become so anti-Obama that a rookie senator can become a sensation just by hosting a hopeless, thirteen-hour filibuster of an Obama appointment?  Do the Republicans really want to continue their reputation of the party of “NO”?

I am not trying to convince you of an entire political platform today.  (I’d rather you buy my book so that I could make a few pennies in the process of accomplishing that.)  I just want to allay the fear and panic of the Republican Party.  Obamacare is going to be the savior of conservatism.  The implementation of Obamacare in 2014 will cause the public to starve for Republican leadership. 

The following is some background information that will support the case for Obamacare being the savior of conservatism.  The information is from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Census Bureau.

From the Department of Health and Human Services:

The charts that appear below are from the “ASPE ISSUE BRIEF - Overview of the Uninsured in the United States: A Summary of the 2012 Current Population Survey Report” that is published by the Department of Health and Human Services.  The report can be found at:

http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2012/uninsuredintheus/ib.shtml#overall

 

                             Sources of Insurance Coverage, 2011

                  Insurance Trends, 1999-2011

            I apologize for the smallness of the charts.  You can view them in their full size at the above listed website.  The charts point out that 15.7% of Americans are uninsured.  They also indicate that both "Employer Sponsored Healthcare" and "Direct Purchases" of healthcare is declining.


From the United States Census Bureau:

The following chart is expropriated from 2008 data on the Census Bureau’s website.  The website can be found at: 

 

http://www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html#Nonemployers

 

Number of Employees That Work for Businesses

with Fewer than 50 Employees

Company Size (number of employees)	Total Paid Employees	Total Paid Employees (at business with fewer than 50 employees)
1 to 4	6,086,291	6,086,291
5 to 9	6,878,051	6,878,051
10 to 19	8,497,391	8,497,391
20 to 99	20,684,691	7,756,759  *
Employees working at businesses with fewer than 50 employees		29,218,492
Total US employees		120,903,551

 

* It was assumed that 3/8s of the businesses that range in size from 20 to 99 employees have 49 or fewer employees.  This was based on the fact that 20 to 49 is 30 employees and 20 to 99 is 80 employees.

 

Based on the chart above, 24% of all workers in the United States (at least according to the 2008 United Census Bureau’s data) are employed by businesses that are exempt from the Healthcare Affordability Plan (Obamacare).  Obamacare does not require employees with fewer than 50 employees to provide healthcare insurance.  Furthermore, if an employer has 51 employees, it can exclude the first 30 employees from the $2,000 per employee per year tax for not providing healthcare insurance.

From the Department of Kaiser Family Foundation:

Another tidbit of healthcare information comes from the Kaiser Family Foundation at their website:

            http://ehbs.kff.org/?page=charts&id=1&sn=6&p=1

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, in 2012 the average the average annual healthcare coverage costs $15,745 for a family of four.

 

To summarize all of the above charts and statistics:

• The employers of 24% of American workers will not be required to provide healthcare to their employees,
• In 2011, 15.7% of all Americans were uninsured,
• The trend of healthcare coverage for both employer provided and individually purchased (“Direct Purchase”) is going down, while
• The trend of government provided healthcare and the uninsured is going up, and
• Healthcare costs are too expensive for the average American to afford without either employer or government assistance.

 

Now to the part where the Republicans panic should be abated…

Obamacare-2012:  Ah, life is wonderful.  Everyone will receive free healthcare.  The government will take care of all our needs.  Why should anyone vote for anybody by President Obama?

Obamacare-2014:  What do you mean I have to purchase my own healthcare coverage?  President Obama told me that I was getting it for free.  You must be kidding - I will be fined by the government if I do not purchase healthcare insurance?  This cannot be true, President Obama promised me free healthcare – and I voted for him.  Why can’t we just raise more taxes on the rich so we can have free healthcare?

There it is – the salvation of conservatism.  To sum up how Obamacare is the salvation of conservatism: there is no such thing as a free lunch!

The one caution of this essay is included in the sentence above that stated: “Why can’t we just raise more taxes on the rich so we can have free healthcare?”  I can imagine the Democrats stating that they intended to make healthcare free for everyone but the Republicans refused to raise taxes on the rich – so it’s the Republicans’ fault that we cannot afford free healthcare.  To the Republican Party: please be prepared to answer that question.  It is not a difficult question.  Then again, I remember so well the delivery of the message during the 2012 election.  So be prepared with the easy answer and deliver it in a sensitive manner – PLEASE.

A Few Obamacare Facts:

(1)  Most hard-working Americans that cannot afford healthcare insurance today think that on January 1, 2014, they will be receiving free healthcare from the government.  They will not.

(2)  Those same hard-working Americans will be taxed for not purchasing the healthcare that they thought they were getting for free.  Most are not aware of this new tax.

(3)  Americans with more substantial means will pay more for the healthcare they already have.  This has already been felt by increased rates the past few years because children must be covered until they reach the age of 26, reproductive healthcare must be provided, etc...  More increases to those that can afford healthcare are coming.  And, those premium increases will make healthcare more unaffordable to many Americans that struggle to purchase it themselves today.

(3a)  The federal government is establishing the minimum standards for healthcare insurance.  These standards will cost everyone more and they are excessive.  They are establishing “bronze”, “silver” and “gold” level plans – with “bronze” being the minimum required coverage. 

(3b)  The “bronze” plan has a maximum “out-of-pocket” deductable of $2,000 per year.  I personally identify with this $2,000 maximum deductable.  My wife and I are in our mid-50s.  We are both healthy and we have enough money in the bank that we can afford a higher deductable.  Instead of paying $2,000 per month for healthcare insurance with a small deductable, we have elected to purchase a healthcare plan with a $5,000 per year deductable.  In doing so, we save $1,000 per month on our premiums.  With Obamacare, we “Direct Purchasers” of healthcare will be forced to pay an extra $12,000 per year.  Thank you Mr. President.

(3c)  We have already accepted that children must be covered until they reach the age of 26 and that birth control medication must be provided.  There will be many more requirements.  For a preview of the minimum healthcare benefits that will be required check out the government employee healthcare plan.  Then ask yourself if we can afford to provide that level of benefits to every American.

(3d)  The “bronze” level plan also requires more mental healthcare coverage than the typical employer sponsored plan.  Therefore, employers and employees will have to pay more.  You can bet there will be many more “minimum” requirements that are above the average plan of today – so hold on to your hat with regard to the premiums that you (and your employer) will have to fork over.  The underlying problem is that our dear government employees have Cadillac healthcare coverage.  If the government establishes minimum requirements less than those now enjoyed by our dear government employees (read Congressman and Senators) then, our dear government employees’ benefits may have to be trimmed.  Else wise, our dear Congressmen and Senators may be criticized for pinching pennies while doling out “free” healthcare while they live high off the hog.

(4) Employers with fewer than 50 employees have no requirement to provide healthcare to their employees.   For employers with more than 50 employees they only have to pay a $2,000 per employee, per year fine for not providing healthcare coverage.  Remember 24% of working Americans work for companies with fewer than 50 employees.  Also consider that the trend of employer provided healthcare coverage is going down (see the above charts).

I am a small business owner.  Recently, I participated in a nationwide bid for my services.  The purchaser is one of America’s top corporations.  After submitting my bid on an electronic bidding website; I received a message that my bid – and all my competitors’ bids were too high.  The message then directed all the bidders to an “expected pricing” list.  The pricing list was stated on a cost per man-hour basis.  The price was so ridiculously low that I immediately realized that I could not compete.  However, some of my competition caved and gave the purchaser the price they demanded.  The price per man-hour was less than the minimum wage plus the cost of employer paid taxes and workmen’s compensation insurance.  It was well below the minimum wage (excluding employer paid taxes and insurance) plus the average, family of four healthcare costs. 

The average family of four healthcare cost ($15,745) is about $7.87 per hour (assuming an employee only gets 10 days paid time off per year).  The cost of healthcare is more than our minimum wage.

Unfortunately, I had to eliminate healthcare benefits to my employees four years ago – before the cost escalation of Obamacare.  I could no longer afford the benefit and remain competitive in my line of business.

I was not willing to participate in the low-ball bidding my perspective client demanded.  However, there were plenty of other vendors that were willing.  I now realize that my business has no room to grow.  I cannot compete in the cut-throat tactics of today’s business world.   I have almost 50 full-time employees.  The realization has sunk in – I can not grow any larger.  I cannot compete with more than 50 full-time employees.  I cannot add $8 per hour of healthcare to my cost of service.

Wait a minute, I can grow.  I can just pay the $2,000 per year tax for not providing healthcare coverage.  That is $1 per man-hour.  Furthermore, (per Obamacare) I can exclude the first 30 employees from my fine calculation.  SMACK:  I just woke up from that dream.  In my business, I cannot add $1 of cost and remain competitive.  I am stuck at 50 employees.  My poor employees make too much money to qualify for free healthcare and too little to purchase their own.  I feel sick about this. 

(5)  The reality is that more and more small businesses will not be able to afford the “bronze” level healthcare insurance.  More and more employers will be forced to drop their healthcare benefits.  The trend that has already started in declining employer provided healthcare benefits (see the chart above) will be accelerated by Obamacare.  Most employees that lose their healthcare benefits will not be able to afford to purchase it themselves.  Instead, they will be taxed for not purchasing it.

(6)  Large companies that are “self-insured” do not have to provide the “bronze” level healthcare benefits.  “Self-insured” means that a business has enough money that it pays for all its employees’ healthcare services.  They usually hire a healthcare insurance company to “administer” their healthcare benefits (line up approved doctors and process the medical claims).  They pay the healthcare insurance company a fee to be their “third party administrator” but they pay all the costs – no matter how high.  Mid-sized companies cannot afford this because the risks are too high.  One employee with cancer can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.  To save money, some midsized companies utilize a hybrid approach to “self-insured”.  In the hybrid mode, the mid-sized companies purchase catastrophic insurance so that the healthcare insurance company only pays if a single employee’s annual healthcare costs exceed a certain amount (say $200,000) or if the entire populations of employees annual cost exceeds a certain amount (say $200,000,000).  Under Obamacare, these hybrid healthcare plans do not receive the exemption that the “self-insured” companies receive.

(6a)  An easy conclusion to reach from fact number (6) above is that large corporations that can afford to be “self-insured’ will be better able to manage their healthcare costs because they are exempt from Obamacare.  They do not have to provide the “bronze” level minimum requirements.  The follow-on corollary is that mid-sized companies will not be able to compete against the large companies.

(6b)  If you work for a large corporation, you will never get healthcare benefits that are equal to your Senator and Congressmen.

(6c)  If you work for a mid-sized company with a hybrid healthcare plan, your premium contributions will be going up.  Or, you may loose your healthcare benefits altogether.

The Bottom Line:

 

The mid-term elections of 2014 and the presidential election of 2016 are far enough away for Obamacare to have tipped over the apple cart.  Republicans need to get off their moral high-horse but they do not have to become liberals.  America desperately needs fiscal conservatism.  We also need compassion.  So when the failure of Obamacare provides you Republicans with the opening to election victories – please have sane solutions for our healthcare problems. 

Obamacare is severely flawed, but it does provide us with a chance to do something about healthcare.  It is easier to fix something that is broken than to build something from scratch in Washington.

Healthcare should be affordable for every American.  Let the public become aware of President Obama’s false promises.  Then fix healthcare by establishing a reasonable minimum standard of health benefits that should be available to every American.  And, figure out how to pay for it without giving large corporations an advantage over the little guy.  If you want some more ideas, read my book (yes, that was a shameless plug).

Finally, while all this plays out: stop being the party of NO.  Pretend that you are big boys and girls and practice a little compromise.  A party that has done a postmortem on how it conducted itself during the last election should realize that stopping all progress in the name of conservatism is not “holding ground”.  It is moving backwards.  America needs spending cuts, but we need more revenue too.  By the way, a Grand Bargain will not only help America, it will help restore the Republican brand.  It will even prevent the Democrats from blaming you for the government not being able to afford free healthcare for everybody.

Lessons for the “Stupid Party”

            Governor Jindal recently said that the Republicans have to stop being the “stupid Party”.  That led me to think about the stupid things the Republicans did during the last election.  The list quickly grew quite large.  It became obvious that the list was not just “stupid” stuff" – it was also a list of lessons learned.  So instead of limiting the list to stupid stuff, it was expanded to include other lessons learned from the 2012 election.

Here are the major lessons:

1.         You can have better policies than the competition, but if the voters do not like you, or do not trust you; you cannot win.  Liking and trusting the candidate is more important to voters than the candidate’s proposed policies.

2.         Make sure the candidate is qualified to win the election and to govern the nation;

a.    Put forth a candidate that can connect with the voters.

b.    Present your Party as representative of all Americans – not just rich white guys.

c.     Set standards for candidates to be included in the Party’s public primary elections.  The Republicans cannot allow anyone with a pizza store to represent the Party and retain the necessary dignity for the Party to be able to win the election.

d.    One standard that is directly learned from the 2012 election: the candidate must be willing to release at least ten years of tax returns.

e.    Another standard is for the candidate to never refer to any portion of the population (say 47%) as out-of-play for their votes because they get so many give-aways from the government.

3.         Do not cut the legs out from under your candidate in twenty primary debates and from negative campaign ads from other primary candidates.

4.         Stand for something.  Voters have to believe that you can make things better in bad times and keep things going in good times.  (Assuming that they like both candidates, this becomes important.)

a.    Governor Romney’s evalution from a moderate to a conservative and than back to a moderate did not work (and, it never will).

b.    This was one of the main causes of the vote not turning out for Governor Romney.

5.         Communicate your positions in plain language that voters can understand – not in policy wonk speech.

6.         Do not allow the fringe of your Party to pull you so far right that you start (and end) the campaign without the possibility of winning the majority of the popular vote.

7.         Do not allow Party members in Congress do stupid things like refusing to compromise on any issue.  For example, the debt ceiling fiasco during the summer of 2011 not only caused the debt rating of the United States of America to be lowered, it also lowered the esteem of the Republican Party.

8.         Do not allow the Democrats to define the intentions of your policies.  Vice President’s statement that “they want to put y’all back in chains” was inexcusable but it did define the message the Democrat’s sent loud and clear: the Republicans want to steal from the poor to give to the rich. 

a.    The Republicans never got the point across that spending cuts were needed to sustain the programs that underpin our social safety-net.

b.    Nor did the Republicans justify tax cuts while the national debt was running out of control.  Governor Romney stated that he could lower tax rates across the board but remain revenue neutral by eliminating tax loop-holes.  His failure to be able to articulate a single loop-hole that would be eliminated ate into his credibility at the same time the Democrats were campaigning against him on the basis of his credibility.

c.     The Republicans never connected with voters on the true economic problems that our national debt poses.  Instead, they allowed the Democrats to divert the campaign to issues like the "war on women” and Governor Romney’s tax shelters in off-shore banks.  Every day lost on debating the economy was a win for the Democrats.

9.         Get your voters to the ballet box.

10.     The Republicans will have to beat President Obama five or six more times.

a.    Remember President Clinton’s role in the 2012 campaign?

b.    If either Secretary Hillary Clinton or Vice President Bidden is the 2016 Democratic candidate – they will be viewed as an extension of President Obama.  In fact, it would be a good bet to assume that President Obama will state that eight years was not long enough to get things done – his team needs another eight.

11.     The Republicans will have to beat Bill Clinton three or four more times.

12.     The Republicans have no star or heir-apparent;

a.    The Democrats have Vice President Biden and Secretary Hillary Clinton sitting in the bull pen ready to fire strikes at the Republicans.  Not that the Vice President has star power – but he can run as President Obama’s surrogate and leverage President Obama’s star power.  Secretary Clinton can run as President Obama’s surrogate (if doing so is beneficial) or she can run as independent from President Obama (if, later in President Obama’s second term, things in the country are not going so well).  In either case, Secretary Clinton can run with star power – her own and her husband’s.

b.    Representative Ryan is now a household name.  But can he really connect with the voters?  Maybe he can – but who knows for sure?

c.     Senator Rubio is Hispanic and a great communicator.  However, he has yet to be tested on the national stage.  He too may fair well.

d.    Governor Christie connects with voters and he is very clear about what he stands for.  Will the Republican contenders attack him as they did Governor Romney?  Whoever appears to be the front-runner will be attacked – which goes back to lesson learned number three.

e.    Senator Santorum can connect with the far right-wingers of the Republican Party but he has no broad appeal among the majority of the voters.  The Senator should be barred from ever running again due to the damage he personally inflicted on Governor Romney during the 2012 primary season.  If he runs again will he damage Governor Christie, Senator Rubio and/or Represntative Ryan?  You bet he will - that is how he campaigns.

f.      Herman Cain?  Who let him on the stage?  The Republicans need to establish some standards for who can run for president with the Party’s support – which goes back to lesson number two.

g.    Others:  The above list is not meant to be comprehensive.  There are tens of others who will test the waters.  If they believe that they can get enough signatures on a ballet petition and (more importantly) enough money to run a campaign – they will enter the race.  Let us all hope that there is a Republican out there with the star power of President Obama and President Clinton. 

h.    This does not mean that Representative Ryan, Senator Rubio and Governor Christie do not have that star power.  However, if they do have it, it has yet to be tested on a national stage.  Star power comes from people skills, not from budgeting prowess.  This is not to slight Representative Ryan.  However, it would seem as though Governor Christie and Senator Rubio may have an edge in the people skills arena.

13.     If you do not have a star and/or heir apparent, do not wait for the next primary campaign season to pick (or nurture) one.  Start winnowing the field now.  Start grooming the potential candidates now.  Start show-casing the potential stars on the national scene now.

14.     As evidenced from all the above lessons learned, it can be concluded that the Republican Party is not organized.  A whole new approach to politics is required so that the Party can survive.

During the 2012 election, the Democrats did all of the above items that were under their control (numbers one through nine) and the Republicans did none of them.  In addition to doing all the right things; the Democrats also had President Obama and President Clinton on their team.  Is it any wonder that the Republican’s lost?

The good news is that the Republican’s have four years to prepare for the next presidential election.  The bad news is that they do not know how to prepare. 

This blog post is the introduction to my next book.  The book will be a play book to help the Republican’s get ready for 2016.  Stay tuned.

The Middle East Will Finally Explode

            This blog entry is a day dream of what I envision happening in the Middle East.  The world is a scary place right now and I wish it could be fixed through diplomacy rather than armed conflict.  However, I do not see any possibility of that happening.  My wife says it is because men run the world and she is probably right.  Women would do a better job of resolving conflicts through diplomacy.

My vision is temporarily horrible, but long-term wonderful.  Remember, it is just a day dream (something that I think will happen but have no certainty of it actually happening).  Here it is…..

The United States will soon (before Valentine’s Day) intervene in Syria.  We will provide weapons to the opposition and provide air cover for their ground operations.  We need to do this because: 1) it is the right thing to do after 60,000 people have died in the conflict, and 2) we need to develop a lot of good will in the Middle East ahead of the really big Iranian event (read on).  This good deed in Syria should be leveraged to get Egyptian President Morsi’s support of the United States intervention.  After all, he recently made strong remarks calling for the Syrian President to step down.  We will also use the Syrian intervention to strengthen key relationships with other Arab states.

Israel, the United States, or both will strike Iran’s nuclear program sites before the end of March.  The purpose of the strikes will be to stall Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon.  The strikes may destroy the centrifuges used to enrich uranium, or they may just close off the ability to enter into the underground bunkers where they are located.  If the strikes only restrict access, expect the strikes to be on-going for a while as the Iranians will clear the debris to get back to work. 

Since the Iranian strike is going to happen, Israel will have a ground war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip (Hamas is an Iranian puppet).  If the United States is not involved in the initial strike of Iran, we will be involved in the military conflict after the strike – especially if Israel could not penetrate the bunkers.  In that event, the United States would attempt to take out the centrifuges with our bigger, better, stronger bunker busting bombs.  However, most likely, the United States has already provided Israel with those bunker busting bombs so that we do not have to directly intervene in the initial strike.

The United States will have to be involved in taking out Iran’s air force and air defenses so that on-going fly-overs can be conducted to keep track of the fissile material Iran has already produced.  We also need to do this to prevent Iran from striking the oil infrastructure in the entire Middle East.  The Iranians have threatened that they will wreak havoc on the world’s oil supply if they are struck.

Our navy will need to protect the Straits of Hormuz to allow the free flow of oil to the free world.  There will be naval conflict with the Iranians.

There will be no “boots on the ground” in Iran.  However, the existing regime will be threatened with an internal uprising.  It will be Iran’s Arab Spring.  This time we will support such an uprising; similar to how we will support Syria (see above).

President Obama will need to go into diplomatic overdrive to get Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, and even Egypt to support our actions.  Egypt will be the hardest to line up – but that is why we have to get them on our side in Syria and push President Morsi for carryover goodwill.  A weaker Iran is in the best interest of Egypt anyway.  The Egyptians used to be the strongest Arab state and they do not like being second fiddle to an unstable Iran.

The timing of the Iranian strike could have political impacts in the United States.  If it occurs before the revised sequestration deadline of March 2^nd, it could be fodder for eliminating most of the defense cuts.  If the President and Congress are still hammering each other over spending cuts and new taxes – the bickering will stop.  National security issues as large as the Iranian conflict will bring our country together.  Maybe the spirit of unity will spark genuine compromise on our domestic issues.  Wouldn’t that be nice?

Gold prices will soar, the stock market will plummet and a sense of fear regarding the economy will slow growth temporarily.  However, if the President can (and I expect he will) assemble a coalition of nations (both our NATP partners and the League of Arab States), Iran will be defeated in a short period of time.  The conflict will be over in one to three months.  It will culminate with the overthrowing of the existing Iranian regime with a government that will want help from the United States (and be friendly towards us).  The markets will recover and finish 2013 with a 15% gain.  Years of prosperity will follow as the United States will have filled a void in the world today – that of a super-power leader that is willing to intervene when things are not right in the world.  Nothing else brings stability to the world than rogue nations knowing that the good guy with the big stick will swing it when necessary.

Following the Iranian crisis, Israel will continue to be bogged down with a ground war with Hamas.  This will be the time when President Obama’s newly formed coalition will bring pressure on the Israelis and Palestinians to reach a settlement.  For all we that we will have done for Israel, the United States will be able to force the Israelis hand at the negotiating table.

Oh, China will take note too because once we have the Middle East thing sorted out, the United States will (with less defense budget cuts) start building up our military presence in the Pacific.  This will result in better relations between China and its neighbors.  Again, this will be good for the world economy – even good for the Chinese.  With the Chinese realizing that a stable world makes them richer, they will even work with the United States to bring North Korea in line with the world community of nations.

The Middle East is a minefield.  No American president has been able to solve the problems of that part of the world.  If President Obama navigates the situation correctly, he will be recorded in history next to Washington and Lincoln.  I wish he did not have to navigate it as I have day dreamed above, but if he does his legend will be earned.

Did you ever think that Fairway Frank would predict that President Obama could go down in history as one of our greatest presidents?  The possibility is real with a good chance of happening.