Russia, ISIL, Hamas and a Scary Future

Are we paying enough attention to world events?  If we are not, who else may be?  Think of the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 by the Ukrainian separatists.  How does a rag-tag band of farmers, shop keepers and grocers get their hands on and use a sophisticated surface to air missile system that is capable of shooting down a plane as high as 70,000 feet in the air?  In this case the answer is easy, the Russians provided both the hardware and the training required to shoot down the plane full of 298 civilians.  The Russians deny this fact while at the same time put forth rationale for why such actions are justifiable (more on this “Diaspora Doctrine” later).

But who else could obtain such sophisticated hardware and training?  By all accounts, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is the most well-funded and organized terrorist organization in history.  ISIL has taken over mass land areas of Iraq and are taxing the citizens that it now “rules.”  In addition, ISIL has seized revenue generating facilities such as oil fields and dams.  ISIL has even pilfered and estimated $450 million from a bank it took control over as part of its ongoing territorial conquests. 

Would China, Russia, Syria, Iran and/or North Korean be willing to sell ISIL a sophisticated surface to air missile system?  If the price was right and any of these countries could conduct the transaction with any form of plausible deniability – of course they would.  North Korea would not even worry about having plausible deniability.  The rest of the above named countries would insist on back door dealings through intermediaries to conceal their dealing with terrorists.  Putin would do it just to cause more problems for America.  The Syrians would be willing to do it if they could obtain a deal that ISIL leaves them alone (probably not likely as Syria is a part of the Levant).  However, ISIL could get an intermediary to fool the Syrian’s into selling the systems without the Syrian’s knowing that the systems are heading to ISIL.

ISIL could shoot down an American or European airliner almost anywhere in the Middle East.  With their enormous resources, ISIL could even conceal a surface to air missile system on a large yacht and sail close to the shores of any Western country and shoot down an airliner (or airliners) of their choice.

ISIL could use its vast financial resources and land mass to train any and all terrorists groups that are aligned with their hatred of Western society.  Imagine Hamas being trained to use a sophisticated missile system and ISIL then smuggling one into Gaza.  The pronouncement of Al-Qaeda's demise has been premature.

Is it not clear that ISIL is an imminent threat to the entire world?  They have stated that they intend to raise their flag over the White House.  Do we need any more warning? 

This is scary stuff and it is only one extrapolation of today’s events into tomorrow’s nightmares.  Here is another.  Russia claims that it must protect Russian speaking people wherever they may live.  Does that give them the right to secede Crimea from Ukraine?  Does it give them the right to invade the ten countries that are home to more than 500,000 Russian speaking people?  By the way, the United States, Israel and Brazil are among the ten countries with greater than 500,000 Russian speaking people.  If Putin is not forced to return Crimea to Ukraine, this principle of “Diaspora Protection by the Fatherland” (or the Diaspora Doctrine) will be accepted.  Putin most likely assumes that it is already an accepted principle.  He has an 80% approval rate at home and is obviously going to invade Eastern Ukraine before the separatists completely collapse.  Will America and our European allies be willing to take the strong actions required by such an invasion (arming the Ukrainian army, building NATO forces in all the surrounding Baltic countries, mass naval deployment in the Black Sea and cutting all economic ties with Russia – including energy)?

Unfortunately, I do not believe that the Western allies would be willing to take those necessary actions and thus, the Diaspora Doctrine will be an accepted international geopolitical principle. 

How does this Diaspora Doctrine project into the future?  How many Chinese people are there?  Why are they spreading out all over the globe?  I just came back from New Zealand where 20% of the population is now Asian.  The majority of that 20% is Chinese.  Do the Chinese have a 5-year plan to populate more and more countries so that after they build up their military they can create excuses for implementing the Diaspora Doctrine?  I was in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics and I was very disturbed by the Olympic Slogan that was displayed everywhere in Beijing: “One World, One Dream.”