2nd Presidential Debate Preview

  Do not expect this debate to be another knock-out for Governor Romney.  President Obama will come ready to play this time.  He will bring his “A” game.  If all goes according to plan, this debate will be a draw.  However, a draw in the debate is a win in the polls for Governor Romney.  It reinforces his “presidential” appearance.  Americans have known for a long time that change is needed.  They just have not been comfortable with Governor Romney.

Every time Governor Romney gets face-time with the American voter, he will make them more and more comfortable with him as President.  The town hall style of this debate will allow Governor Romney to engage with everyday Americans.  That will be a big plus for him.  Look for both Governor Romney and President Obama to walk towards the person that asks a question.  President Clinton did that and made America believe that he really did “feel our pain”.

As for the attacking, it will be more aggressive by President Obama than by Governor Romney.  President Obama is under pressure to recover from his poor performance in the first debate.  He will bring out the “47 percent” and the “where are the loophole elimination specifics?” and ‘how are you going to stop the Iranians?”  Governor Romney will not respond directly to the President on these attacks.  Instead, he will speak directly to the audience and explain his planned solutions.  Governor Romney will only look at the President when he is attacking the President.  Look for Governor Romney to raise the 23 million people out of work, the forty-something million people on food stamps, the economy growing slower than the previous quarters, and the raise of radical Islamists burning American flags and killing our Libyan diplomat.

President Obama has a tough balancing act here and he could screw it up again.  He has to demonstrate that he is the “alpha dog” in the race (after all he is already the President).  But, he has to maintain his “likability”.  It is very possible for the President to overdue his attacking and allow Governor Romney to appear as the more likable candidate.  If he spends more time talking to Governor Romney (rather than the audience) he will be losing the debate.  In fact, there is a very high likelihood that this will happen.  If it does, Romney could score a devastating win in this debate.  A win that could “seal the deal’ on this election.

Then again, it may very well be a bland, no gaff debate.  In that case, it will be a draw – which is a win in the polls for Governor Romney (but not a knock-out).

VP Debate Preview: Another Romney Victory

Rack up another big win for Governor Romney tonight.  Four years ago, Senator Obama was the new kid on the block.  He was a fresh, new face on the scene.  He offered youth, vitality, hope and change.  He had an overwhelming appeal from the youth of America.   However, he did not want to offer the full American populace the choice of an administration with zero experience.   Therefore, he selected Senator Biden to be his running mate.  Joe Biden was the adult supervision that would oversee the massive change promised by an Obama administration.  Senator Biden would make sure that nothing was broken (or at least provide such an image for the election).

Tonight, Representative Ryan will be the fresh new face.  He is the new kid on the block.  Vice President Biden will be the stodgy old white man.  President Obama has a record now.  He is no longer the fresh new kid on the block.  He no longer needs adult supervision – but he is stuck with Vice President Biden.  Worse yet, Vice President Biden’s many gaffs have made it blatantly clear that he requires more supervision than he could ever provide.  Everybody loves Vice President Biden.  He is a great guy.  He is a beer drinking Irishman from Scranton, Pennsylvania.  How could you not like him?  But who would want him to be “President Biden”?

Just look at the scene tonight.  Mute the volume and just look at the picture.  The Romney campaign already won this debate.  In a week from tonight, Governor Romney will have a growing margin of victory over the failing Obama campaign.

The First October Surprise

            The first October surprise has arrived: Obama has fizzled and Romney has sizzled.  President Obama’s “hope and change” campaign of 2008 is now a tedious - we think we’re starting to turn things around, growth is anemic, unemployment seems stuck above 8% forever, more people are on food stamps than ever before, we have no idea of how to get the deficit under control, we refuse to work with the Republicans - BUT we should not change the path we are on.  On the other hand, Governor Romney’s “growth” plan offers the hope and change that Obama has never delivered.

The tired line that the President inherited the worst recession since the Great Depression was restated for the sixteen-trillionth time (once for every dollar of our national debt).  The problem is that most Americans realize that the recession was not the President’s fault.  However, the lack of a recovery from that recession – or even a credible plan to do so – was (and remains) the President’s responsibility.  He has not delivered on this responsibility and Americans are acutely aware of this fact.

Americans like the President.  They just want him to take some responsibility for the mess he has allowed to linger.  They want him to say that he has learned from his past mistakes AND that he now has a credible solution to fix the mess.  Nobody wants to hear “stay the course”.  Note to President Obama:  Americans do not believe that everything is okay.

The optimism of the 2008 campaign is gone.  It has been replaced with a tired President with no new ideas.  Worse yet, the President either believes, or wants the American people to believe that everything is wonderful – there is no longer the need for that hope and change stuff.  Besides, President Obama is going to improve the education of some fourth grader and that superior student is going to make America more competitive in the global economy.  We just have to wait another twelve years for her to finish college.  Furthermore, we should hire thousands more teachers right now so that we will have millions of these economic stimulus package students ready to turn the economy around upon graduation in 2024.

Contrasting with President Obama’s dour outlook, Governor Romney was optimistic.  He provided a ray of hope that America can regain its economic muscle.  And, he said we could do it without throwing the downtrodden under the bus.  His message resonated because at our very core, Americans believe in America.  Governor Romney just simply stated that with a more experienced economic leader, a leader with real executive experience, we can put America back to work.  Governor Romney’s “growth” is his “hope and change” - it is his “morning in America” – it is the rebirth of his campaign.  Jobs for the American people will not only increase the middle-class standard of living, it will broaden our tax base and thereby increase tax revenues – even without raising tax rates.  “Growth” is what Americans want.  It is the hope and change that they thought President Obama had promised.  Well, if we can wait for the graduating class of 2024, maybe President Obama’s hope and change will someday, mean economic growth.

Governor Romney’s common-sense, clearly worded plans resonated with the American public.  The only person that did not understand Governor Romney appeared to be President Obama.  At one point (after the umpteenth repeating of the $5 trillion tax cut line) I thought for sure that Governor Romney was going to say: “Mr. President I have attempted to clear your confusion on that matter numerous times, I realize that you are not understanding my clear words but I am confidant that the American people watching this debate understand my position so I am not going to respond to your repetitious mistruths any longer.”  I made that very statement to the TV image of the President and I believe that millions more Americans did the same.

If Governor Romney can continue with a positive, pro-growth message, he will inspire the millions of undecided Americans to latch onto the Romney train.  And, he will get help in the next few days from the Democratic spin machine.  They will be cranking out negative messages claiming that Romney was dishonest in his debate remarks.  The Democrats cannot help themselves.  They believe that they have to do damage control.  Unfortunately, the horse has left the barn and the damage control will just be the blimp that provides real-time video of the galloping horse.  The blimp cannot catch the horse – it can only provide a different angle to view the horse.  But the blimp will be filled with the caustic Obama campaign manager Stephanie Cutter’s commentary of negativity.  It will be a stark contrast to Governor Romney’s positive message.  It will harm the President even further because Americans are looking for civility in our politics.  Governor Romney oozes class. Stephanie Cutter does not.

Political bickering is not going to win a single vote.  So Governor Romney needs to stay positive and he needs to give the Democrats all the rope they need to hang themselves.  Stephanie Cutter knows how to do that very well.  Then there is the upcoming Vice Presidential debate next week.  Can you imagine Vice President Biden trying to draw blood from Representative Ryan?   Looks like Governor Romney will be enjoying a few weeks of good news.

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Other observations from last night’s first presidential debate that contributed to the President’s poor performance – and Romney’s stunning large margin of victory: 1) Romney was likable, even personable; 2) Obama was not, he appeared to be angry; 3) Romney had command of the details; 4) Obama did not; 5) Romney was enthusiast; 6) Obama was not; 7) Romney looked right into Obama’s eyes and said, your policies have failed; 8) Obama looked down at the floor and kept repeating accusations that Romney clearly refuted – it appeared as though Obama was not listening to the discussion.

First Debate Preview

               In a nutshell, Governor Romney has to draw a tie and President Obama has to win big.  Therefore, Governor Romney is in the driver's seat for the first debate.

If Governor Romney ekes out a win by a slight margin, or even draws a tie: he wins.  It makes him “presidential” because it will be his first time sharing the stage with the actual President.  The polls would tighten and there would no longer be a clear front-runner.  This would be a good outcome for Governor Romney.  It would allow him to play offense – rather than the defense he has been playing for the past two weeks.

A clear win by President Obama would continue the race with Governor Romney playing defense – and falling further and further behind.  However, the likelihood of a big win for President Obama is very small.  President Obama has a horrible record, and he has not proposed any new policies to fix our economic mess.  His campaign to date has consisted of calling Governor Romney a "bad man".  Governor Romney will refute the “bad man” attacks just by standing on the same stage as the President.  President Obama cannot refute his record and lack of new policies to move us “forward”.

So chances are; we are looking at a draw – but that is still a win for Governor Romney.  But what if Governor Romney scores a big win?

If Governor Romney demonstrates that he has a command of the economy and domestic policy (the subject matter for the first debate) and establishes that President Obama’s policies have been responsible for the lack of a recovery – he could win the first debate decisively.  He would, therefore, take control of the race.  Governor Romney could end the first debate as the front-runner.  This would really shake things up.  And, it is very possible.  However, Governor Romney has to go big.  He has to repeatedly refer to the sluggish recovery, the persistently high unemployment rate, the ever-growing debt, the impact the debt will have on our national defense, etc.  And he has to link President Obama’s policies (or lack thereof) to all of these problems.

It is time for Governor Romney to tell President Obama:  “I agree Mr. President, the recession was not your fault, but recovering from it has been your responsibility for the last four years.  What have you done?  Why should you be given another four years?  Americans are not looking for bold, persistent experimentation that you called for in your nomination acceptance speech.  They are looking for solutions – not experiments.”

Forget asking if “you are better off than you were four years ago?”  Instead, ask: “Is America better off than it was four years ago?  Has the economy improved, are we safer from terrorism, are we “liked” by more radical Islamists?  Where do you think we will be in four years if we do not change course?”

Governor Romney has to be crisp with specific plans of action that he will take to grow the economy and create jobs.  It will be difficult to accomplish a full “economic speech” in a debate format – but, for a big win, he must do it.  He has to provide specifics that people can believe.  For example, robotic manufacturing is developing at a rapid rate and this technology will allow America to compete against the $2 per hour labor rates in China. One American worker will be able to produce the same as one-hundred Chinese workers with this new technology.  Governor Romney’s administration will help business invest in these technologies.  We will also become completely energy self-sufficient – and thereby make America a more cost-effective place to manufacture.  We will reduce the taxes placed on the products we export.  We will turn the tables on our balance-of-trade.  We will stop exporting our wealth to foreign countries who lend us money to buy their products.

Yes, there will be fewer people working in our manufacturing plants because of technology but it will be more than if all the manufacturing is done in China.  And, by creating a surplus in our balance-of-trade, we will bring wealth back to America - wealth that will be spent on new cars, new homes, more entertainment and more services than ever.  Bringing wealth to America will allow us to grow the service sector of our economy – and these will be good paying jobs for Americans.

With robotic factories, maybe the work that Steve Jobs of Apple said (to the President) “was never coming back” – will come back.  Americans will be able to buy iPhones made in America.

Governor Romney has to (in bullet statements) establish the case for our runaway entitlement costs and how his plan will bring them under control and allow us to bring our national debt under control.  He has to talk about Medicare and what it will do to the national debt.  He has to make sure that Americans understand that doing nothing is not an option.  Doing nothing is President Obama’s plan and it is suicide.  President Obama’s plan is to replace Medicare with Obamacare.  Unfortunately, changing the name of the program does nothing to control costs.

The first debate will most likely end in a draw.  And, that will be a win for Governor Romney.  In the unlikely event that someone does score a big win, it would most likely be Governor Romney.  In either case, expect Governor Romney to be playing offense on Thursday.