First Debate Preview

               In a nutshell, Governor Romney has to draw a tie and President Obama has to win big.  Therefore, Governor Romney is in the driver's seat for the first debate.

If Governor Romney ekes out a win by a slight margin, or even draws a tie: he wins.  It makes him “presidential” because it will be his first time sharing the stage with the actual President.  The polls would tighten and there would no longer be a clear front-runner.  This would be a good outcome for Governor Romney.  It would allow him to play offense – rather than the defense he has been playing for the past two weeks.

A clear win by President Obama would continue the race with Governor Romney playing defense – and falling further and further behind.  However, the likelihood of a big win for President Obama is very small.  President Obama has a horrible record, and he has not proposed any new policies to fix our economic mess.  His campaign to date has consisted of calling Governor Romney a "bad man".  Governor Romney will refute the “bad man” attacks just by standing on the same stage as the President.  President Obama cannot refute his record and lack of new policies to move us “forward”.

So chances are; we are looking at a draw – but that is still a win for Governor Romney.  But what if Governor Romney scores a big win?

If Governor Romney demonstrates that he has a command of the economy and domestic policy (the subject matter for the first debate) and establishes that President Obama’s policies have been responsible for the lack of a recovery – he could win the first debate decisively.  He would, therefore, take control of the race.  Governor Romney could end the first debate as the front-runner.  This would really shake things up.  And, it is very possible.  However, Governor Romney has to go big.  He has to repeatedly refer to the sluggish recovery, the persistently high unemployment rate, the ever-growing debt, the impact the debt will have on our national defense, etc.  And he has to link President Obama’s policies (or lack thereof) to all of these problems.

It is time for Governor Romney to tell President Obama:  “I agree Mr. President, the recession was not your fault, but recovering from it has been your responsibility for the last four years.  What have you done?  Why should you be given another four years?  Americans are not looking for bold, persistent experimentation that you called for in your nomination acceptance speech.  They are looking for solutions – not experiments.”

Forget asking if “you are better off than you were four years ago?”  Instead, ask: “Is America better off than it was four years ago?  Has the economy improved, are we safer from terrorism, are we “liked” by more radical Islamists?  Where do you think we will be in four years if we do not change course?”

Governor Romney has to be crisp with specific plans of action that he will take to grow the economy and create jobs.  It will be difficult to accomplish a full “economic speech” in a debate format – but, for a big win, he must do it.  He has to provide specifics that people can believe.  For example, robotic manufacturing is developing at a rapid rate and this technology will allow America to compete against the $2 per hour labor rates in China. One American worker will be able to produce the same as one-hundred Chinese workers with this new technology.  Governor Romney’s administration will help business invest in these technologies.  We will also become completely energy self-sufficient – and thereby make America a more cost-effective place to manufacture.  We will reduce the taxes placed on the products we export.  We will turn the tables on our balance-of-trade.  We will stop exporting our wealth to foreign countries who lend us money to buy their products.

Yes, there will be fewer people working in our manufacturing plants because of technology but it will be more than if all the manufacturing is done in China.  And, by creating a surplus in our balance-of-trade, we will bring wealth back to America - wealth that will be spent on new cars, new homes, more entertainment and more services than ever.  Bringing wealth to America will allow us to grow the service sector of our economy – and these will be good paying jobs for Americans.

With robotic factories, maybe the work that Steve Jobs of Apple said (to the President) “was never coming back” – will come back.  Americans will be able to buy iPhones made in America.

Governor Romney has to (in bullet statements) establish the case for our runaway entitlement costs and how his plan will bring them under control and allow us to bring our national debt under control.  He has to talk about Medicare and what it will do to the national debt.  He has to make sure that Americans understand that doing nothing is not an option.  Doing nothing is President Obama’s plan and it is suicide.  President Obama’s plan is to replace Medicare with Obamacare.  Unfortunately, changing the name of the program does nothing to control costs.

The first debate will most likely end in a draw.  And, that will be a win for Governor Romney.  In the unlikely event that someone does score a big win, it would most likely be Governor Romney.  In either case, expect Governor Romney to be playing offense on Thursday.