Gaza, Egypt, Iran, Israel and Libya

            The Middle East is again in turmoil (or it should be stated that it is still in turmoil).  In my book, I stated that when people of nations with dictators rise up against the dictator, we should support them.  Support should be in the form of an immediate pronouncement that we stand with the opposition (assuming that the current government has a bad track record on human rights).  I also repeated Henry Kissinger’s wisdom that once a revolution begins; we never know who will be in charge when it ends.  What Mr. Kissinger was saying was that altruistic youth most frequently start the process of overthrowing a totalitarian dictator, but a more organized group normally steps in after the dictator is gone.  That is exactly what happened in Egypt.  The Muslim Brotherhood is now is control.  The altruistic youth that camped out in Tahrir Square were not organized or capable enough to establish a political party – so the Muslim Brotherhood filled the leadership vacuum.  However, the people of Egypt know that the United States supported their desire for freedom.  One day, when the Egyptian’s actually achieve a representative government, they will remember that the United States was with them at their crucial time in history.

My book calls for the United States to pronounce our support of all such opposition groups.  However, I draw lines on where we should actually provide military support.  We do not want anymore nation building as we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

The point is that we must support people in their pursuit of freedom.  We should not worry about whether the new government that takes over will be friendly towards us (as the Muslim Brotherhood may not be).   We are the United States of America and any new government of a rebuilding country will need us much more than we need them.  We should not worry about maintaining the current dictator in power - even when we have already bought him off and know that we can demand for him to maintain civil stability.

If we continue to support freedom fighters, eventually more and more nations will have true freedom: freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of the press and the right to vote.  Once a country has true freedom, their government must be representative of its people’s wishes or they will be voted out of office.  And, once a government is representative of a people that remembers the United States supported their fight for freedom – they will be a friend of America.

The most important thing for the United States to do is to fully support countries that already have true freedom.  That is whey we have NATO.  NATO is an alliance of countries with true freedom that pledge allegiance to each other to help each preserve these fundamental human rights of true freedom.  The NATO pact includes military support among the participating nations to preserve such freedoms.  NATO was formed to thwart the Soviet Union’s attempt to conquer the world – but it retains its purpose to maintain freedom.  We also have a treaty with Israel that pledges our allegiance to help them preserve their sovereignty and freedoms.  Our demonstration of such commitments shows the world that we are serious about freedom for all the peoples of the world.

Our commitment to Israel demonstrates to those countries in the Middle East that we are serious about freedom.  It is our commitment to Israel that frightens those countries that do not want to provide true freedom to their people.  This is why we must stand with Israel as though they were the fifty-first state of America.  The Middle East is a region of significant national interest (a.k.a.: oil).  Everything we do should be toward bringing stability to this part of the world.  An unflinching support of Israel is chief among such things.

Now what is going on in Gaza?  I have no facts to back this up but I suspect that either Egypt or Iran is behind the latest violence.  Maybe both of them are instigating the violence.  Things are not going well in Egypt.  They have a newly elected government but the people are not happy that the military retained significant control.  In addition, their economy is suffering.  The people of Egypt are not satisfied with the results of their hard fought freedoms.  One way to divert the Egyptians attention from the troubles at home is to have the Israelis engage in war against their fellow Arab Palestinians.  One thing most (but not all) Egyptians have in common is hatred of Israel.  By focusing the Egyptians attention on Israel, pressure is taken off the Egyptian military and civilian government to address their domestic problems.

 Israel engaging in a war with the Palestinians is also good for Iran.  Whenever the Israelis defend their homeland from rockets being fired into their land, the world press always portrays Israel as the bad guys.  Just imagine if Mexico or Canada fired a couple hundred rockets into the United States.  We would be demanding total war to stop such inhuman aggression.  Why does Israel get a bad name for doing the same thing we would do?  Anyway, the worse Israel looks to the world community, the more the Iranians can get away with in their ever continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons.  By the way, the terrorist group, Hamas, gets most of its rockets from Iran – many smuggled in through tunnels from Egypt to Gaza.

Then we have Libya.  Our own elected leaders are conducting a political assault on each other over what may or may not have happened in Libya.  We do require all the facts and those facts should not be taking as long as they have to be brought to the light of day.   However, the world is very turbulent right now.  What the world needs to see is a solid, united America.  I agree with the Republicans’ demands for the facts.  I disagree with making the demands through the press.  Specific demands for information should be made behind closed doors with agreed upon deadlines for providing the answers.  If the deadlines are not met, then it would be time to spout off talking points to the press.  That is how our politics need to be conducted.  The rest of the world (particularly the less developed nations of the world) does not understand how our democracy works.  For that reason, we should be more discrete about conflicts between our political parties.  This would portray a vision of a united America.  Unity is needed for quick decisions regarding thwarting threats against the United States or even threats against the stability of the world.  When America is viewed as united – other nations thinks twice about upsetting the stability of the world.

So what is needed right now?  1) Less public bickering over Libya; 2) answers from the current administration about Libya; 3) a bi-partisan approach to address the issues uncovered by the Libyan facts; 4) a bi-partisan demonstration of support for Israel as it faces down Hamas; and 4) an unwavering, bi-partisan pronouncement of support for Israel and all that Israel needs to do to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Such actions by our elected leaders would demonstrate to the world that America is back.  We have had our elections.  We have debated our differences and have now put them behind us – at least as much as is required to be united in our governing.  We have a working government that will once again demonstrate to the world that we stand for freedom and we support those that fight for freedom.  Most importantly, we support those that already have freedom from those that wish to take it away.

Election Reflection (or Random Thoughts)

            Mr. Obama is the President of the United States of America and I fully support him.  That does not mean that I will agree with all his policies.  When I disagree with his policies I will say so and hope that better policies are considered.  I will even offer my own ideas on policies.  By the way, if you have not read my book, you should.  You will find a ton of policy ideas that I believe will make America a better place.  If you have a Kindle, you can download the book for free.  It is offered for free today and tomorrow (11/15 & 11/16/2012).

The United States of America is the greatest nation on earth.  We just had a divisive election campaign season - but now that it is over – most Americans are wishing that Congress can work as a team again.  Yes we need two parties (maybe three), but we need one United States Congress.

Governor Romney made another campaign gaff today.  He told a group of his supporters that President Obama won because he offered largess to the nation’s minorities and youth.  President Obama did campaign on issues regarding programs that will help the needy and Americans decided that this is what the country needs.  However, a lot of Congressmen ran on opposing positions and won as well.  As I predicted in my book, the election did not provide a mandate.  However, I also predicted that the lack of a mandate would leave our nation “adrift at sea with no leader at the helm.”  When I wrote the book I thought the negativity of the campaign would tear us apart and that we would be worse off than we were when our credit rating was lowered.  I believe (and I hope) I was wrong.  I think that the enormous amount of negativity has numbed us.  We are ready for an opportunity to rekindle a bi-partisan spirit.

The opportunity is here.  It is called the fiscal cliff.  President Obama made a firm statement yesterday at his press conference that taxes on the wealthy must be raised.  That is what he campaigned for and he won the election.  It is time for the Republicans to give up the sacred cow of “no more taxes” and start negotiating with the President.  I believe that we should allow the Bush tax cuts to expire – for everybody.  Let them expire at the end of this year for those earning more than $500K, at the end of 2013 for those earning more than $250K, at the end of 2014 for everyone.  We need the money.  President Obama wants to allow the Bush cuts to expire at the end of this year for those earning $250K or more.  This will bring in $800 billion in additional taxes over the next ten years.  When the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone, we will bring in an additional $2.5 trillion over ten year (that is trillion with a “T”).

It is time for Republicans to negotiate taxes for Representative Ryan’s thoughtful ideas on Social Security and Medicare reform.  Representative Ryan’s “Business Consumption Tax” should also be considered.  It is actually a value-added sales tax (VAT) that the rest of the world already uses.  The World Trade Organization allows countries to remove the VAT from exports and to levy tariffs on imports in an equal amount to that lost by having removed the VAT from its exports.  Most of the world is doing this and because we do not – we are at a trade disadvantage.  Congress, please consider leveraging the World Trade Organization rules to help us rather then allow other countries to use them against us.

I cannot do an Election Reflection without discussing the lessons learned.  The Republicans lost by a razor thin margin.  The popular vote was 50% to 48.5%.  That is as close as it gets.  Furthermore, Governor Romney lost by very narrow margins in four states (Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia).  Had he won those states, we would be congratulating him today.  There was no mandate – but there was a trend.  Our country is becoming more diverse and the Republicans need to accept this.  It is a good thing.  It is what has made (and will keep) America the shining city on the hill.  We are the only country that has a “dream” named after it.  The “American Dream” will never die because more and more diverse peoples will continue to chase it – for our nations and the word’s betterment.  Republicans should consider another dream – the Dream Act.  How could any person (let alone an entire political party) believe that they could alienate so many voters with “self-deportation” and think they could win?  Then again, I allowed myself to think they could pull it off.  However, my book stated that my beliefs were to legalize the existing illegal immigrants and start protecting our borders.

Most pundits believe that Governor Romney lost because he did not connect with the everyday American.  The Democrats successfully portrayed Governor Romney as an out-of-touch rich person. There may be some truth to this portrayal of Governor Romney.  However, I believe that Governor Romney failed because he did not play to his strength - economics.  Sure, he said he would add twelve million jobs - but he did not make Americans understand where President Obama's entitlement society would lead us.  All he needed to do was to show a television commercial of the riots in Greece with a rolling message of its government's massive entitlement programs that have gone bankrupt.  People would have connected the dots that President Obama's plan is not sustainable.  That would have made people think about the consequences of our ever growing government and what could possibly happen if we do not get it under control.   Oh well, that thought can be saved for another election.

The other lesson learned is that the primary elections need to be shorter and nationalized (all states vote on the same day in May).  Stretching out the primary campaign by going from one state to the next is ridiculous.  By the time the primaries are held in the final states the winner is already known.  The primaries that were supposed to stiffen Governor Romney up for the campaign against President Obama only allowed Republicans more time to point out why their candidate should not be the next president. 

I think the parties should also consider establishing qualifications to be a candidate.  A candidate should have at least one of the following qualifications: 1) twelve years as a congressman; 2) six years as a senator; 3) four years as a governor; or, 4) has four years of CEO experience at a Fortune 100 company.  What was Herman Cain doing at the debates?  I would not be offended if each party had a closed door convention of its existing and retired congressman, senators, governors, presidents and vice-presidents and selected four candidates for the primary elections.  I also would welcome the birth of a third political party.  In fact, if the far-right wingers wanted to leave the Republican Party and officially start their own party (maybe they could call it the Tea Party) I would be very, very happy.

Congratulations President Obama.  America now, more than ever, needs your leadership.  Republicans - America needs your leadership as well.  Please handle the difficult problems we are facing with honest compromise.  Do it fast – that fiscal cliff thing could cause our debt rating to be lowered yet again.  And, we are still on the path to becoming the next Greece.

2012 Voters’ Gut Check

            According to the “Federal Register Facts” issued by the Office of the Federal Register on July 15, 2012, the Code of Federal Regulations contained 163,333 pages in 2009.  That many pages and binders would take up approximately twenty-three feet of shelf space.  According to Representative Ryan’s “Roadmap to America’s Future” the tax code alone contains 70,000 pages.  Legislation and regulations have become so complicated that it is impossible for the American voter to base their vote on the facts.  Then again, voters have always voted on their visceral instincts (their gut feelings).

Our legislation and regulations have become so convoluted that it is difficult for the average voter to determine which politician’s plan makes the most sense.  To make matters worse, politicians will cite facts that indicate that the “other guy” is not telling the truth.  With such a complicated system, facts from politicians are like Mulligans from the devil – useless.  However, voters want to hear a plan for making things better.  Voters may not be able to analyze in detail the plans being offered - but they can judge whether the plan will put us in the right direction.  It is a gut feeling that works.

Americans have a feel if things are good, bad or just okay.  They gauge whether change is needed and whether they are comfortable with the change being offered.  Right now the voters are thinking that things are either bad or maybe just okay (maybe they are getting better).

Voters will consider a change ff their gut feeling is that “things” are bad and not getting better.  “Things” mostly refer to the economy but when America is feeling threatened (as we did after 9/11) “things” can be solely focused on our national security and/or national pride.  You cannot attack the United States without stirring up the American sense of justice – and a demand for retribution.  Things are not good when Americans believe that we have lost respect as the absolute world power.  However, if the matter is only our reputation and not national security or pride, then “things” that matter during an election are primarily economics.

Once the American populace has decided that things are bad enough to consider a change, then they look at the alternative.  If the alternative is something that they are comfortable with, they will make the change.  When  things are really bad, any change will do.  When things are bad but not horrible, the change has to be appealing enough to convince voters that things could be better.  This is the essence of our presidential election right now.  The Democrats are telling us: 1) that things are not that bad; 2) we are heading in the right direction, and; 3) Governor Romney is a bad choice.

Americans have felt economic pain for five years now; they know that things are not good.  In addition, we are watching radical Islamists burning American flags on our televisions.  Our ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in a terrorist attack.  It has been seven weeks and our government has still not explained how this terrorist attack was allowed to happen despite prior warnings.  The original (two-week story) that a mob erupted after watching a demeaning video only caused Americans embarrassment – even a sense of lost national pride.

The Democrats know that they cannot convince us that things are good or even “getting better”.  Therefore, they have spent the majority of their money attempting to convince us that the alternative is worse.  President Obama is much more likable.  Governor Romney is a bad person.  He is too rich to relate to the middle-class.  He would have “let Detroit go bankrupt”.  He has tax shelters in the Cayman Islands.  He did not pay his “fair share” of taxes.  He will give the wealthy tax cuts and pay for them by taxing the middle-class.  And, of course, he did so well in the debates because he lied.

The Democratic campaign has been reduced to – we feel your pain and we will protect you from the hard realities of life.  The other guys are more interested in helping the rich guys.  The Democrats are running on class-warfare because they cannot run on a record of helping the middle-class.  The Great Recession was NOT the President’s fault (as he constantly reminds us) but the recovery has been his responsibility for four years now.

Sure, most people want to work hard and get rich - but more people work to stay out of poverty than to get rich.  Working Americans mingle with other working Americans everyday.  We know who has an unemployed spouse, or a sick child.  We know who is beating the system and who is deservingly receiving help.  We know that there are too many people receiving government assistance.  We are wondering if this is because the economy is lousy or is it just easier to be on the dole than to work for a living.  There are doubts.  Is government assistance a temporary cure to our bad economy?  Or, is government assistance a permanent hindrance to economic growth?  In either case, we know that the growth of our entitlement programs is unsustainable.

In this backdrop, President Obama is offering “stay the path; we are heading in the right direction - forward”.  On the other hand, Governor Romney is offering economic growth.  He is offering solutions.  He is offering jobs.  Working Americans are getting a feel for both parties’ messages and they are getting very comfortable with the alternative.  The better the alternative looks, the worse the status quo appears.

The great thing about America is that the working class decides when the pendulum has swung too far in one direction – and they pull it back.  The middle-class gut-check will keep America the greatest country that has ever existed