2012 Voters’ Gut Check

            According to the “Federal Register Facts” issued by the Office of the Federal Register on July 15, 2012, the Code of Federal Regulations contained 163,333 pages in 2009.  That many pages and binders would take up approximately twenty-three feet of shelf space.  According to Representative Ryan’s “Roadmap to America’s Future” the tax code alone contains 70,000 pages.  Legislation and regulations have become so complicated that it is impossible for the American voter to base their vote on the facts.  Then again, voters have always voted on their visceral instincts (their gut feelings).

Our legislation and regulations have become so convoluted that it is difficult for the average voter to determine which politician’s plan makes the most sense.  To make matters worse, politicians will cite facts that indicate that the “other guy” is not telling the truth.  With such a complicated system, facts from politicians are like Mulligans from the devil – useless.  However, voters want to hear a plan for making things better.  Voters may not be able to analyze in detail the plans being offered - but they can judge whether the plan will put us in the right direction.  It is a gut feeling that works.

Americans have a feel if things are good, bad or just okay.  They gauge whether change is needed and whether they are comfortable with the change being offered.  Right now the voters are thinking that things are either bad or maybe just okay (maybe they are getting better).

Voters will consider a change ff their gut feeling is that “things” are bad and not getting better.  “Things” mostly refer to the economy but when America is feeling threatened (as we did after 9/11) “things” can be solely focused on our national security and/or national pride.  You cannot attack the United States without stirring up the American sense of justice – and a demand for retribution.  Things are not good when Americans believe that we have lost respect as the absolute world power.  However, if the matter is only our reputation and not national security or pride, then “things” that matter during an election are primarily economics.

Once the American populace has decided that things are bad enough to consider a change, then they look at the alternative.  If the alternative is something that they are comfortable with, they will make the change.  When  things are really bad, any change will do.  When things are bad but not horrible, the change has to be appealing enough to convince voters that things could be better.  This is the essence of our presidential election right now.  The Democrats are telling us: 1) that things are not that bad; 2) we are heading in the right direction, and; 3) Governor Romney is a bad choice.

Americans have felt economic pain for five years now; they know that things are not good.  In addition, we are watching radical Islamists burning American flags on our televisions.  Our ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in a terrorist attack.  It has been seven weeks and our government has still not explained how this terrorist attack was allowed to happen despite prior warnings.  The original (two-week story) that a mob erupted after watching a demeaning video only caused Americans embarrassment – even a sense of lost national pride.

The Democrats know that they cannot convince us that things are good or even “getting better”.  Therefore, they have spent the majority of their money attempting to convince us that the alternative is worse.  President Obama is much more likable.  Governor Romney is a bad person.  He is too rich to relate to the middle-class.  He would have “let Detroit go bankrupt”.  He has tax shelters in the Cayman Islands.  He did not pay his “fair share” of taxes.  He will give the wealthy tax cuts and pay for them by taxing the middle-class.  And, of course, he did so well in the debates because he lied.

The Democratic campaign has been reduced to – we feel your pain and we will protect you from the hard realities of life.  The other guys are more interested in helping the rich guys.  The Democrats are running on class-warfare because they cannot run on a record of helping the middle-class.  The Great Recession was NOT the President’s fault (as he constantly reminds us) but the recovery has been his responsibility for four years now.

Sure, most people want to work hard and get rich - but more people work to stay out of poverty than to get rich.  Working Americans mingle with other working Americans everyday.  We know who has an unemployed spouse, or a sick child.  We know who is beating the system and who is deservingly receiving help.  We know that there are too many people receiving government assistance.  We are wondering if this is because the economy is lousy or is it just easier to be on the dole than to work for a living.  There are doubts.  Is government assistance a temporary cure to our bad economy?  Or, is government assistance a permanent hindrance to economic growth?  In either case, we know that the growth of our entitlement programs is unsustainable.

In this backdrop, President Obama is offering “stay the path; we are heading in the right direction - forward”.  On the other hand, Governor Romney is offering economic growth.  He is offering solutions.  He is offering jobs.  Working Americans are getting a feel for both parties’ messages and they are getting very comfortable with the alternative.  The better the alternative looks, the worse the status quo appears.

The great thing about America is that the working class decides when the pendulum has swung too far in one direction – and they pull it back.  The middle-class gut-check will keep America the greatest country that has ever existed