The Middle East Will Finally Explode

            This blog entry is a day dream of what I envision happening in the Middle East.  The world is a scary place right now and I wish it could be fixed through diplomacy rather than armed conflict.  However, I do not see any possibility of that happening.  My wife says it is because men run the world and she is probably right.  Women would do a better job of resolving conflicts through diplomacy.

My vision is temporarily horrible, but long-term wonderful.  Remember, it is just a day dream (something that I think will happen but have no certainty of it actually happening).  Here it is…..

The United States will soon (before Valentine’s Day) intervene in Syria.  We will provide weapons to the opposition and provide air cover for their ground operations.  We need to do this because: 1) it is the right thing to do after 60,000 people have died in the conflict, and 2) we need to develop a lot of good will in the Middle East ahead of the really big Iranian event (read on).  This good deed in Syria should be leveraged to get Egyptian President Morsi’s support of the United States intervention.  After all, he recently made strong remarks calling for the Syrian President to step down.  We will also use the Syrian intervention to strengthen key relationships with other Arab states.

Israel, the United States, or both will strike Iran’s nuclear program sites before the end of March.  The purpose of the strikes will be to stall Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon.  The strikes may destroy the centrifuges used to enrich uranium, or they may just close off the ability to enter into the underground bunkers where they are located.  If the strikes only restrict access, expect the strikes to be on-going for a while as the Iranians will clear the debris to get back to work. 

Since the Iranian strike is going to happen, Israel will have a ground war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip (Hamas is an Iranian puppet).  If the United States is not involved in the initial strike of Iran, we will be involved in the military conflict after the strike – especially if Israel could not penetrate the bunkers.  In that event, the United States would attempt to take out the centrifuges with our bigger, better, stronger bunker busting bombs.  However, most likely, the United States has already provided Israel with those bunker busting bombs so that we do not have to directly intervene in the initial strike.

The United States will have to be involved in taking out Iran’s air force and air defenses so that on-going fly-overs can be conducted to keep track of the fissile material Iran has already produced.  We also need to do this to prevent Iran from striking the oil infrastructure in the entire Middle East.  The Iranians have threatened that they will wreak havoc on the world’s oil supply if they are struck.

Our navy will need to protect the Straits of Hormuz to allow the free flow of oil to the free world.  There will be naval conflict with the Iranians.

There will be no “boots on the ground” in Iran.  However, the existing regime will be threatened with an internal uprising.  It will be Iran’s Arab Spring.  This time we will support such an uprising; similar to how we will support Syria (see above).

President Obama will need to go into diplomatic overdrive to get Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, and even Egypt to support our actions.  Egypt will be the hardest to line up – but that is why we have to get them on our side in Syria and push President Morsi for carryover goodwill.  A weaker Iran is in the best interest of Egypt anyway.  The Egyptians used to be the strongest Arab state and they do not like being second fiddle to an unstable Iran.

The timing of the Iranian strike could have political impacts in the United States.  If it occurs before the revised sequestration deadline of March 2^nd, it could be fodder for eliminating most of the defense cuts.  If the President and Congress are still hammering each other over spending cuts and new taxes – the bickering will stop.  National security issues as large as the Iranian conflict will bring our country together.  Maybe the spirit of unity will spark genuine compromise on our domestic issues.  Wouldn’t that be nice?

Gold prices will soar, the stock market will plummet and a sense of fear regarding the economy will slow growth temporarily.  However, if the President can (and I expect he will) assemble a coalition of nations (both our NATP partners and the League of Arab States), Iran will be defeated in a short period of time.  The conflict will be over in one to three months.  It will culminate with the overthrowing of the existing Iranian regime with a government that will want help from the United States (and be friendly towards us).  The markets will recover and finish 2013 with a 15% gain.  Years of prosperity will follow as the United States will have filled a void in the world today – that of a super-power leader that is willing to intervene when things are not right in the world.  Nothing else brings stability to the world than rogue nations knowing that the good guy with the big stick will swing it when necessary.

Following the Iranian crisis, Israel will continue to be bogged down with a ground war with Hamas.  This will be the time when President Obama’s newly formed coalition will bring pressure on the Israelis and Palestinians to reach a settlement.  For all we that we will have done for Israel, the United States will be able to force the Israelis hand at the negotiating table.

Oh, China will take note too because once we have the Middle East thing sorted out, the United States will (with less defense budget cuts) start building up our military presence in the Pacific.  This will result in better relations between China and its neighbors.  Again, this will be good for the world economy – even good for the Chinese.  With the Chinese realizing that a stable world makes them richer, they will even work with the United States to bring North Korea in line with the world community of nations.

The Middle East is a minefield.  No American president has been able to solve the problems of that part of the world.  If President Obama navigates the situation correctly, he will be recorded in history next to Washington and Lincoln.  I wish he did not have to navigate it as I have day dreamed above, but if he does his legend will be earned.

Did you ever think that Fairway Frank would predict that President Obama could go down in history as one of our greatest presidents?  The possibility is real with a good chance of happening.