Here
are the major lessons:
1. You can have
better policies than the competition, but if the voters do not like you, or do
not trust you; you cannot win. Liking and trusting
the candidate is more important to voters than the candidate’s proposed
policies.
2. Make sure the
candidate is qualified to win the election and to govern the nation;
a.
Put forth a
candidate that can connect with the voters.
b.
Present your
Party as representative of all Americans – not just rich white guys.
c.
Set standards
for candidates to be included in the Party’s public primary elections.
The Republicans cannot allow anyone with a pizza store to represent the
Party and retain the necessary dignity for the Party to be able to win the
election.
d.
One standard
that is directly learned from the 2012 election: the candidate must be willing
to release at least ten years of tax returns.
e.
Another
standard is for the candidate to never refer to any portion of the population
(say 47%) as out-of-play for their votes because they get so many give-aways
from the government.
3. Do not cut the
legs out from under your candidate in twenty primary debates and from negative
campaign ads from other primary candidates.
4. Stand for
something. Voters have to believe that
you can make things better in bad times and keep things going in good
times. (Assuming that they like both
candidates, this becomes important.)
a.
Governor
Romney’s evalution from a moderate to a conservative and than back to a
moderate did not work (and, it never will).
b.
This was one
of the main causes of the vote not turning out for Governor Romney.
5. Communicate
your positions in plain language that voters can understand – not in policy
wonk speech.
6. Do not allow
the fringe of your Party to pull you so far right that you start (and end) the
campaign without the possibility of winning the majority of the popular vote.
7. Do not allow
Party members in Congress do stupid things like refusing to compromise on any
issue. For example, the debt ceiling
fiasco during the summer of 2011 not only caused the debt rating of the United States of America
8. Do not allow
the Democrats to define the intentions of your policies. Vice President’s statement that “they want to
put y’all back in chains” was inexcusable but it did define the message the
Democrat’s sent loud and clear: the Republicans want to steal from the poor to
give to the rich.
a.
The
Republicans never got the point across that spending cuts were needed to
sustain the programs that underpin our social safety-net.
b.
Nor did the
Republicans justify tax cuts while the national debt was running out of
control. Governor Romney stated that he
could lower tax rates across the board but remain revenue neutral by
eliminating tax loop-holes. His failure
to be able to articulate a single loop-hole that would be eliminated ate into
his credibility at the same time the Democrats were campaigning against him on
the basis of his credibility.
c.
The
Republicans never connected with voters on the true economic problems that our
national debt poses. Instead, they
allowed the Democrats to divert the campaign to issues like the "war on women”
and Governor Romney’s tax shelters in off-shore banks. Every day lost on debating the economy was a
win for the Democrats.
9. Get your
voters to the ballet box.
10.
The Republicans
will have to beat President Obama five or six more times.
a.
Remember
President Clinton’s role in the 2012 campaign?
b.
If either
Secretary Hillary Clinton or Vice President Bidden is the 2016 Democratic
candidate – they will be viewed as an extension of President Obama. In fact, it would be a good bet to assume
that President Obama will state that eight years was not long enough to get
things done – his team needs another eight.
11.
The
Republicans will have to beat Bill Clinton three or four more times.
12.
The
Republicans have no star or heir-apparent;
a.
The Democrats
have Vice President Biden and Secretary Hillary Clinton sitting in the bull pen
ready to fire strikes at the Republicans.
Not that the Vice President has star power – but he can run as President
Obama’s surrogate and leverage President Obama’s star power. Secretary Clinton can run as President
Obama’s surrogate (if doing so is beneficial) or she can run as independent
from President Obama (if, later in President Obama’s second term, things in the
country are not going so well). In
either case, Secretary Clinton can run with star power – her own and her
husband’s.
b.
Representative
Ryan is now a household name. But can he
really connect with the voters? Maybe he
can – but who knows for sure?
c.
Senator Rubio
is Hispanic and a great communicator.
However, he has yet to be tested on the national stage. He too may fair well.
d.
Governor
Christie connects with voters and he is very clear about what he stands
for. Will the Republican contenders
attack him as they did Governor Romney?
Whoever appears to be the front-runner will be attacked – which goes
back to lesson learned number three.
e.
Senator
Santorum can connect with the far right-wingers of the Republican Party but he
has no broad appeal among the majority of the voters. The Senator should be barred from ever
running again due to the damage he personally inflicted on Governor Romney
during the 2012 primary season. If he runs again will he damage Governor Christie, Senator Rubio and/or Represntative Ryan? You bet he will - that is how he campaigns.
f.
Herman
Cain? Who let him on the stage? The Republicans need to establish some
standards for who can run for president with the Party’s support – which goes
back to lesson number two.
g.
Others: The above list is not meant to be
comprehensive. There are tens of others
who will test the waters. If they
believe that they can get enough signatures on a ballet petition and (more
importantly) enough money to run a campaign – they will enter the race. Let us all hope that there is a Republican
out there with the star power of President Obama and President Clinton.
h.
This does not
mean that Representative Ryan, Senator Rubio and Governor Christie do not have
that star power. However, if they do
have it, it has yet to be tested on a national stage. Star power comes from people skills, not from
budgeting prowess. This is not to slight
Representative Ryan. However, it would
seem as though Governor Christie and Senator Rubio may have an edge in the
people skills arena.
13.
If you do not
have a star and/or heir apparent, do not wait for the next primary campaign
season to pick (or nurture) one. Start winnowing the
field now. Start grooming the potential
candidates now. Start show-casing the
potential stars on the national scene now.
14.
As evidenced
from all the above lessons learned, it can be concluded that the Republican
Party is not organized. A whole new
approach to politics is required so that the Party can survive.
During
the 2012 election, the Democrats did all of the above items that were under
their control (numbers one through nine) and the Republicans did none of
them. In addition to doing all the right
things; the Democrats also had President Obama and President Clinton on their
team. Is it any wonder that the
Republican’s lost?
The good news is that the
Republican’s have four years to prepare for the next presidential
election. The bad news is that they do not
know how to prepare.
This blog post is the
introduction to my next book. The book
will be a play book to help the Republican’s get ready for 2016. Stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment