The Picture of Our Violent Society

              Here is a picture of how the Vice President's committee needs to address the problem of violence recently brought to everyone's attention through the Newtown, Connecticut massacre. Unfortunately, all our problems boil down to politics (as opposed to common sense). Surely, there are things that can be done to address the causes of violence. We just have to get politics out of the way.

This drawing describes the areas that need to be addressed to minimize violence in our society. I say minimize because violence cannot be completely eliminated. However, the fact that violence cannot be completely solved does not mean that it should not be addressed in a meaningful manner. From my perspective, guns are the area where we could make the quickest progress. However, a comprehensive approach (as I lay out in my last post) is absolutely needed.

The areas of the picture that indicate a “Danger” zone could very well include violence. There are evil people in this world that do not require mental illness or guns to commit violence. However, to commit violence on the scale that has occurred all too frequently this year, guns and mental health must be factors.

So Mr. Vice President, this picture is for you. If you can eliminate the "Inaction" with "Solutions" you will have completed your task. With “Solutions” in the picture, the “Danger” can be replaced with ‘Warning – Take Action”. Mr. Vice President, we all are pulling for you to be successful.

Gun Culture, Violent Culture, and Political Correctness

              Bob Costas was excoriated for his Sunday Night Football halftime commentary stating that we had a “gun culture” in America that needed to be addressed. Many people took his comments to be a call for gun control and took exception to his comments based on the 2^nd Amendment of our Constitution. I believe that Bob Costas has been exonerated. Following the Newtown, Connecticut massacre of twenty children, most Americans now believe that we have an unacceptable gun culture.

The 2^nd Amendment is very clear that its purpose is to keep the populace armed so that our nation never has a government that morphs into a dictatorship. Its purpose is to prevent tyranny. However, when most people talk about their right to “bear arms” it is usually based on their right to hunt, or to protect themselves from other civilians. Rarely do you hear people state that they need guns to prevent tyranny (although there are some whacko survivalists that do believe in this possibility). However, if every American citizen owned automatic assault riffles there would still be no chance for the populace militia to stop the American military from completing a coup de dat (if they so desired). Our military not only has assault riffles, it has tanks, armored personnel carriers, gun ship helicopters, jet fighters, missiles, nuclear weapons, drones, and an organized command and control structure. The 2^nd Amendment was practical and useful when it was written but it can no longer prevent tyranny. With that said, I support the 2^nd Amendment for the purpose of civilians protecting themselves from other civilians.

The good news is, we are a very open society and our soldiers are not only a part of the military, they are a part of our open society. Therefore, we have no need to worry about our military supporting a dictatorship.

In the light of Newtown, Connecticut, we must reevaluate many aspects of our society. We not only have a gun culture, we have a violent culture, and we have an overly political correct culture. Our political correctness prevents people from stating when they see something that would not have been acceptable only forty years ago. Political correctness has been good in some areas. It is good that we do no longer expect a woman to aspire to the traditional role of housewife (it’s also good that we admire those that do). It is also good that we do not shame people for having a mental illness. However, it is not okay to look the other way when our entertainment industry glorifies killing and even teaches our children how to kill through video games.

When the Supreme Court ruled on pornography they stated that they could not define pornography, but they knew it when they saw it. Somewhere along the way (through political correctness) we lost the ability to see pornography. Pornography does not have to be sexual in nature. The glorification of violence in ‘art” is a form of pornography.  We may not be able to define it, but we know it when we see it (or hear it as in the case of hip-hop music).

Here is a political correctness issue to ponder: If gangster-hip-hop music was initiated and proliferated by middle-class white people, would it have been considered acceptable? Does the fact that (at least in its infancy) it was dominated by African Americans have anything to do with why it was accepted? The unfortunate answer is yes. It is yes because African Americans see much more violence than non-African Americans and it was viewed as artists reflecting the life they experience. But should we allow the portrayal of violence to be glorified? Why is this accepted? The rhythm of the music is art. That art should be used in an uplifting manner to better people's lives (and some of it does) - not in a manner that encourages more violence.

During World War II, our military determined that only 20% of our soldiers could actually shoot to kill. To increase this percentage, the military now uses video games to desensitize our soldiers to killing – and they have experienced a very high success rate. Fortunately, the military fosters this desensitization in the context of war. The military conditions our soldiers to know that the desensitization does not extend to ordinary life. Who is conditioning our children on when the desensitization is inappropriate? Parents should be doing this – but how many children do not have the parental guidance they desperately require? Or to be even more politically incorrect, how many parents do not have the capacity to teach their children?

After 9/11 the catch phrase “If you see something, say something” came into popular usage. It was a call for civilians to be mindful of potential terrorist activities and to alert law enforcement officials as soon as possible in order to investigate and to stop any potential threats before they were carried out. We need the same policy for people who may pose a threat because of potentially diminished mental capacity, mental delusions and/or unreasonable anger. This is a “politically correct” sensitive area. However, we are rational people and we can do this. For example, if you see a person acting in a strange manner, you can assess whether he has the potential to do harm (and it should be okay to err on the side of caution). If you think he could possibly do harm, you should contact someone in his or her life to alert them for further evaluation. This could be the individual’s parent, spouse, their school principal, their place of worship, or (if in a work setting) their boss. If you do not know the person, tell the police. If we normalize this type of reporting into our society; it would not be considered “out of bounds” to identify someone as possibly needing help. There would be no stigma attached to the reported individual or to the reporter. (At least I would hope not because I am confident that someone would call my wife and ask: what the heck is up with Frank?)  Such reports should be viewed as just a check that the reporter realizes could be completely off-base. If we operated under this condition there would be no negative impact on the reported individual or on the reporter. Without this being a societal norm, it takes a lot of courage for someone to speak up (it’s just not politically correct).

The point is; if you see something, say something! And, it does not have to be a young man wearing a suicide vest. It may be some young, disoriented person with an angry look on his face. Rather than walk by and forget about him, think of the Newtown children - and do something.

If we do become less political correct, our civilian commitment laws will need to be reviewed so that a potentially dangerous person could be provided with treatment before they actually commit a violent act.

Then; there are our gun laws. I do believe in the 2^nd Amendment right for people to own guns for their own protection. However, along with this right comes responsibility. Strict permitting requirements should be in place for every gun purchase. The individual must pass both a criminal background check and a psychological test (no matter how politically incorrect this may be). Then, the gun owner must be held responsible for the safe keeping of that gun so that no other individual can gain access to it. If a gun owner becomes aware that his or her gun is missing, they must report that to the police immediately.

All guns must be registered. If an individual moves to a new area, their guns must be registered with the new local law enforcement organization. I would like to see a bullet shot from each new gun purchased and for that bullet to be digitally scanned for its “gun barrel fingerprint” so that bullets found at crime scenes could be matched to the gun used. This may be too expensive or not yet technologically possible – but it would be a great law enforcement tool. People caught with guns in their homes that are not properly registered should face stiff penalties. People caught with guns on their person without a permit for carrying a gun should face even stiffer penalties. People that use a gun to commit a crime should be given long prison sentences. We must enact public policy that reflects society’s values that our gun culture is no longer acceptable.

In New Zealand, the gun purchaser and everyone that lives with the gun purchaser is interviewed prior to issuing a permit for obtaining a gun. The purchaser must also take and pass a course on how to use and safely store the gun. After that, the gun owner must renew their gun license every five years by going through the same process. We should consider measures like this.

I agree that guns do not kill people. People kill people. However, we should not make it as easy for people to kill people as we do. People should have the right to own guns – but not military assault riffles. We should define a short list of acceptable types of guns that people are allowed to own, codify that list into law and strictly enforce the law.

The death of twenty children in Newtown, Connecticut has heightened our realization that guns have gotten out of control. However, even if all the above measures were already embedded into our society – the lives of those twenty children may still have been lost. There is no perfect solution. However, with the above measure, we most likely will prevent some (if not most) of the future horror stories (similar to the one Newtown, Connecticut is living through right now). And, we should be able to significantly reduce the 12,000 people that are killed via gun violence each and every year in our great country.

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By the way, my book is available as a free Kindle download today (12/19/2012).  It has a lot of common sense solutions to the many problems facing America today.  It is a quick and refreshing read.

The Fiscal Cliff – Fairway Frank Style

My book included 51 issues – but failed to include the “Fiscal Cliff”.  So, here it is; defined and discussed in Fairway Frank’s unique style:

 

Definition:  Last year when the debt ceiling had to be raised, the Republican controlled House of Representatives demanded measures to get the national debt under control before approving an increase to the debt limit.  This demand resulted in the President and the Speaker of the House negotiating a deal to bring our fiscal house to order.  When the “Grand Bargain” negotiations between Speaker Boehner and President Obama fell apart, a bill was passed to create a “Super Committee” of twelve Republican and Democratic Senators and Representatives.  The Super Committee was to craft a bill that would reduce the growth of our national debt (growth not the actual debt itself).  Following the completion of the Super Committee’s work there could be no changes by the remaining members of our robust legislative bodies.  The bill that was to be crafted by the Super Committee would only get an up or down vote in Congress.  If the bill did not pass; mandatory spending cuts (referred to as “sequestration”) would kick in on January 1, 2013.  The sequestration option was referred to as “kicking the can down the road” – meaning that we would fix things later.  Well - the Super Committee failed to craft a bill to be brought to Congress for a vote.  Therefore, the mandatory spending cuts (sequestration) are 26 days away from being reality.

At the time the sequestration option was developed, everybody believed that it was so horrible that Congress would come up with a better plan before it was scheduled to take effect.  At the same time, nobody was thinking about the coincidence of the timing that sequestration had with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.  Yes, both the spending cuts of sequestration and the Bush tax cuts expiration take effect on January 1, 2012.  The 2% social security payroll tax holiday also expires on that very day – Happy New Year. 

Approximately $600 billion of combined spending cuts increased taxes will affect the economy.  Many economists are predicting that we will fall back into a recession with the unemployment rate rising above 9% again.  By the way, one of the sequestration spending cuts is the elimination of the extended unemployment benefits. This complete mess is now called the “Fiscal Cliff” and we are scheduled to roll over the edge of this fiscal cliff at midnight, December 31^st – what a hangover

Far Left:  The President won the election on the platform of raising taxes on the wealthy.  The tax rates on the upper 2% of income earners ($250K or more) must be increased.  Furthermore, Congress should no longer have control over the national debt.  The President should not have to ask Congress to borrow more money.  Congress acted irresponsibly last year and it resulted in our debt rating being lowered.  And, by the way, we have a couple stimulus projects we would like funded – but only about $50 billion a year to start.  If the Republicans do not agree to these terms we are prepared to go over the cliff.  And, the best part of this is - if we do go over the cliff, everyone will blame the Republicans.

Far Right:  The Republicans retained its majority in the House of Representatives on the platform of a smaller government.  We are willing to generate more revenue by eliminating tax loop-holes for the wealthy – NOT by raising tax rates.  The real problem facing America is spending – spending is out of control.  The entitlement programs already approved by Congress are unsustainable.  We must have entitlement reform and a tax code overhaul.  If the Democrats are not willing to negotiate a framework for overhauling our tax code and for reforming our entitlement programs – we are prepared to go over the cliff.  And, the best part of this is - if we do go over the cliff, President Obama will be staring at the need for another debt ceiling increase and we will be holding all the cards (because we have not learned that threatening to default on the debt of the United States of America is not good for Americans - or for the rest of the world).

From the Middle:  We are screwed.  Buy a parachute. 

 

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It is hard to believe that we have devolved to the point of practicing mutual mass-destruction in our domestic policy making.

My book predicted that the massive amount of negative campaigning would polarize our nation even more than it was before the campaigning began (and, it was already more polarized than I could ever remember at that time).  Unfortunately, I was correct.

For a short duration following the election, there was a cease fire.  I had a lapse in judgment that led me to think that maybe all the negativity had numbed us.  Maybe it had made us (and our elected leaders) realize that we needed to unite and work together in good faith towards the goal of keeping America the greatest nation on earth.  I even wrote a blog entry to that effect.  That momentary lapse of judgment gave me a great feeling of hope.  However, after allowing myself to be fooled into a false sense of hope, this new round of political hostility has brought me down hard.  Words cannot convey the depth of my disappointment.

As predicted in my book, this election has provided no mandate and it has left us adrift at sea without any leaders capable of taking the helm.  Where are leaders like Tip O’Neil and Ronnie Reagan when you need them?  Are they gone forever?  With that said, I still hope that President Obama and Speaker Boehner can muster the statesmanship required to solve our problems.  And, once they do, that they can use that statesmanship and resulting accomplishments to reunite all Americans.  However, to this point, I have not seen any evidence that statesmanship still exists in Washington.

Congress cannot develop and agree to frameworks to overhaul our tax code and to reform our entitlement programs in 26 days.  Heck, they probably will only be working on ten of those remaining 26 days.  Just imagine if the company you work for, or the business you own, or even your family finances were left unattended with such enormous problems – for eighteen months.  You company would have gone out of business, you would have lost your job and/or your family would be destitute.  Congress has known for eighteen months that these deadlines were coming – but they were too busy campaigning to work on our real problems.

Now that the campaigning is over, we Americans do not expect a “Grand Bargain” solution to solve our enormous problems before we are at the precipice.  There is not enough time or creativity in Washington for a true solution to our economic troubles to be developed before the fiscal cliff causes true human hardship.  Therefore, to prevent this human hardship, please just do the stuff that everybody agrees on:

1. Extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone earning less than $250K (without precluding the extension of the Bush tax cuts for those earning $250K in the future through other means of revenue generation);
2. Extend the unemployment benefits;
3. Extend the estate tax cuts;
4. Extend the capital gains tax cuts;
5. Agree on a spending number (a percentage of Gross Domestic Product) where our government must limit its average annual expenditures; and,
6. Agree to future (next year) overhauls of our tax code and entitlement programs (that does not preclude lowering tax rates).

When we had the Clinton tax rates we had a budget surplus.  We have not had a surplus since Clinton was president.  In fact, we have had deficits of over $1 trillion in each of the past five years.  When you look at the numbers, it is clear that the major factor that enabled Clinton to achieve a budget surplus was not higher taxes – it was lower spending.  BUT TAXES HELPED!  During the Clinton years, our government spent 19% of the GDP.  We are now spending 23% of our GDP on government programs.

My book stated that the negative political campaigning would cause Americans to despise the “other side” - and to despise fellow Americans that support the ‘other side”.  This prediction has also, unfortunately, become a reality.  I have felt it in my own family.  This fiscal cliff is not only economically damaging - it is damaging civility.

Please President Obama and Speaker Boehner; start talking to each other instead of at each other through the press.  What ‘we the people’ want is a good-faith, honest effort to put the sacred-cows aside and come up with a plan that will save us from ourselves.  Just some cordial conversation would give us some encouragement.  Do the minimum items stated above to prevent true human hardship.  Finally, please commit to a more civilized discourse.  We the people want to be united in carrying out the solution that you develop for our future.  Mutual mass-destruction is not a plausible negotiating tactic for achieving compromise.

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If you liked the above discussion, you will find my book just as enlightening on fifty-one other issues facing America.  The election is over, but the issues still remain.  The book will give you insight on the problems that still need to be solved and a lot of ideas on how to solve them.  If you read the entire book, you will learn how you can be a part of the solution.  The book is a quick read.  This blog entry is about 1,600 words – the book is 24,000 words.  That means the book is about 15 times longer than this blog entry – it is an easy, refreshing read!

Gaza, Egypt, Iran, Israel and Libya

            The Middle East is again in turmoil (or it should be stated that it is still in turmoil).  In my book, I stated that when people of nations with dictators rise up against the dictator, we should support them.  Support should be in the form of an immediate pronouncement that we stand with the opposition (assuming that the current government has a bad track record on human rights).  I also repeated Henry Kissinger’s wisdom that once a revolution begins; we never know who will be in charge when it ends.  What Mr. Kissinger was saying was that altruistic youth most frequently start the process of overthrowing a totalitarian dictator, but a more organized group normally steps in after the dictator is gone.  That is exactly what happened in Egypt.  The Muslim Brotherhood is now is control.  The altruistic youth that camped out in Tahrir Square were not organized or capable enough to establish a political party – so the Muslim Brotherhood filled the leadership vacuum.  However, the people of Egypt know that the United States supported their desire for freedom.  One day, when the Egyptian’s actually achieve a representative government, they will remember that the United States was with them at their crucial time in history.

My book calls for the United States to pronounce our support of all such opposition groups.  However, I draw lines on where we should actually provide military support.  We do not want anymore nation building as we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

The point is that we must support people in their pursuit of freedom.  We should not worry about whether the new government that takes over will be friendly towards us (as the Muslim Brotherhood may not be).   We are the United States of America and any new government of a rebuilding country will need us much more than we need them.  We should not worry about maintaining the current dictator in power - even when we have already bought him off and know that we can demand for him to maintain civil stability.

If we continue to support freedom fighters, eventually more and more nations will have true freedom: freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of the press and the right to vote.  Once a country has true freedom, their government must be representative of its people’s wishes or they will be voted out of office.  And, once a government is representative of a people that remembers the United States supported their fight for freedom – they will be a friend of America.

The most important thing for the United States to do is to fully support countries that already have true freedom.  That is whey we have NATO.  NATO is an alliance of countries with true freedom that pledge allegiance to each other to help each preserve these fundamental human rights of true freedom.  The NATO pact includes military support among the participating nations to preserve such freedoms.  NATO was formed to thwart the Soviet Union’s attempt to conquer the world – but it retains its purpose to maintain freedom.  We also have a treaty with Israel that pledges our allegiance to help them preserve their sovereignty and freedoms.  Our demonstration of such commitments shows the world that we are serious about freedom for all the peoples of the world.

Our commitment to Israel demonstrates to those countries in the Middle East that we are serious about freedom.  It is our commitment to Israel that frightens those countries that do not want to provide true freedom to their people.  This is why we must stand with Israel as though they were the fifty-first state of America.  The Middle East is a region of significant national interest (a.k.a.: oil).  Everything we do should be toward bringing stability to this part of the world.  An unflinching support of Israel is chief among such things.

Now what is going on in Gaza?  I have no facts to back this up but I suspect that either Egypt or Iran is behind the latest violence.  Maybe both of them are instigating the violence.  Things are not going well in Egypt.  They have a newly elected government but the people are not happy that the military retained significant control.  In addition, their economy is suffering.  The people of Egypt are not satisfied with the results of their hard fought freedoms.  One way to divert the Egyptians attention from the troubles at home is to have the Israelis engage in war against their fellow Arab Palestinians.  One thing most (but not all) Egyptians have in common is hatred of Israel.  By focusing the Egyptians attention on Israel, pressure is taken off the Egyptian military and civilian government to address their domestic problems.

 Israel engaging in a war with the Palestinians is also good for Iran.  Whenever the Israelis defend their homeland from rockets being fired into their land, the world press always portrays Israel as the bad guys.  Just imagine if Mexico or Canada fired a couple hundred rockets into the United States.  We would be demanding total war to stop such inhuman aggression.  Why does Israel get a bad name for doing the same thing we would do?  Anyway, the worse Israel looks to the world community, the more the Iranians can get away with in their ever continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons.  By the way, the terrorist group, Hamas, gets most of its rockets from Iran – many smuggled in through tunnels from Egypt to Gaza.

Then we have Libya.  Our own elected leaders are conducting a political assault on each other over what may or may not have happened in Libya.  We do require all the facts and those facts should not be taking as long as they have to be brought to the light of day.   However, the world is very turbulent right now.  What the world needs to see is a solid, united America.  I agree with the Republicans’ demands for the facts.  I disagree with making the demands through the press.  Specific demands for information should be made behind closed doors with agreed upon deadlines for providing the answers.  If the deadlines are not met, then it would be time to spout off talking points to the press.  That is how our politics need to be conducted.  The rest of the world (particularly the less developed nations of the world) does not understand how our democracy works.  For that reason, we should be more discrete about conflicts between our political parties.  This would portray a vision of a united America.  Unity is needed for quick decisions regarding thwarting threats against the United States or even threats against the stability of the world.  When America is viewed as united – other nations thinks twice about upsetting the stability of the world.

So what is needed right now?  1) Less public bickering over Libya; 2) answers from the current administration about Libya; 3) a bi-partisan approach to address the issues uncovered by the Libyan facts; 4) a bi-partisan demonstration of support for Israel as it faces down Hamas; and 4) an unwavering, bi-partisan pronouncement of support for Israel and all that Israel needs to do to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Such actions by our elected leaders would demonstrate to the world that America is back.  We have had our elections.  We have debated our differences and have now put them behind us – at least as much as is required to be united in our governing.  We have a working government that will once again demonstrate to the world that we stand for freedom and we support those that fight for freedom.  Most importantly, we support those that already have freedom from those that wish to take it away.

Election Reflection (or Random Thoughts)

            Mr. Obama is the President of the United States of America and I fully support him.  That does not mean that I will agree with all his policies.  When I disagree with his policies I will say so and hope that better policies are considered.  I will even offer my own ideas on policies.  By the way, if you have not read my book, you should.  You will find a ton of policy ideas that I believe will make America a better place.  If you have a Kindle, you can download the book for free.  It is offered for free today and tomorrow (11/15 & 11/16/2012).

The United States of America is the greatest nation on earth.  We just had a divisive election campaign season - but now that it is over – most Americans are wishing that Congress can work as a team again.  Yes we need two parties (maybe three), but we need one United States Congress.

Governor Romney made another campaign gaff today.  He told a group of his supporters that President Obama won because he offered largess to the nation’s minorities and youth.  President Obama did campaign on issues regarding programs that will help the needy and Americans decided that this is what the country needs.  However, a lot of Congressmen ran on opposing positions and won as well.  As I predicted in my book, the election did not provide a mandate.  However, I also predicted that the lack of a mandate would leave our nation “adrift at sea with no leader at the helm.”  When I wrote the book I thought the negativity of the campaign would tear us apart and that we would be worse off than we were when our credit rating was lowered.  I believe (and I hope) I was wrong.  I think that the enormous amount of negativity has numbed us.  We are ready for an opportunity to rekindle a bi-partisan spirit.

The opportunity is here.  It is called the fiscal cliff.  President Obama made a firm statement yesterday at his press conference that taxes on the wealthy must be raised.  That is what he campaigned for and he won the election.  It is time for the Republicans to give up the sacred cow of “no more taxes” and start negotiating with the President.  I believe that we should allow the Bush tax cuts to expire – for everybody.  Let them expire at the end of this year for those earning more than $500K, at the end of 2013 for those earning more than $250K, at the end of 2014 for everyone.  We need the money.  President Obama wants to allow the Bush cuts to expire at the end of this year for those earning $250K or more.  This will bring in $800 billion in additional taxes over the next ten years.  When the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone, we will bring in an additional $2.5 trillion over ten year (that is trillion with a “T”).

It is time for Republicans to negotiate taxes for Representative Ryan’s thoughtful ideas on Social Security and Medicare reform.  Representative Ryan’s “Business Consumption Tax” should also be considered.  It is actually a value-added sales tax (VAT) that the rest of the world already uses.  The World Trade Organization allows countries to remove the VAT from exports and to levy tariffs on imports in an equal amount to that lost by having removed the VAT from its exports.  Most of the world is doing this and because we do not – we are at a trade disadvantage.  Congress, please consider leveraging the World Trade Organization rules to help us rather then allow other countries to use them against us.

I cannot do an Election Reflection without discussing the lessons learned.  The Republicans lost by a razor thin margin.  The popular vote was 50% to 48.5%.  That is as close as it gets.  Furthermore, Governor Romney lost by very narrow margins in four states (Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia).  Had he won those states, we would be congratulating him today.  There was no mandate – but there was a trend.  Our country is becoming more diverse and the Republicans need to accept this.  It is a good thing.  It is what has made (and will keep) America the shining city on the hill.  We are the only country that has a “dream” named after it.  The “American Dream” will never die because more and more diverse peoples will continue to chase it – for our nations and the word’s betterment.  Republicans should consider another dream – the Dream Act.  How could any person (let alone an entire political party) believe that they could alienate so many voters with “self-deportation” and think they could win?  Then again, I allowed myself to think they could pull it off.  However, my book stated that my beliefs were to legalize the existing illegal immigrants and start protecting our borders.

Most pundits believe that Governor Romney lost because he did not connect with the everyday American.  The Democrats successfully portrayed Governor Romney as an out-of-touch rich person. There may be some truth to this portrayal of Governor Romney.  However, I believe that Governor Romney failed because he did not play to his strength - economics.  Sure, he said he would add twelve million jobs - but he did not make Americans understand where President Obama's entitlement society would lead us.  All he needed to do was to show a television commercial of the riots in Greece with a rolling message of its government's massive entitlement programs that have gone bankrupt.  People would have connected the dots that President Obama's plan is not sustainable.  That would have made people think about the consequences of our ever growing government and what could possibly happen if we do not get it under control.   Oh well, that thought can be saved for another election.

The other lesson learned is that the primary elections need to be shorter and nationalized (all states vote on the same day in May).  Stretching out the primary campaign by going from one state to the next is ridiculous.  By the time the primaries are held in the final states the winner is already known.  The primaries that were supposed to stiffen Governor Romney up for the campaign against President Obama only allowed Republicans more time to point out why their candidate should not be the next president. 

I think the parties should also consider establishing qualifications to be a candidate.  A candidate should have at least one of the following qualifications: 1) twelve years as a congressman; 2) six years as a senator; 3) four years as a governor; or, 4) has four years of CEO experience at a Fortune 100 company.  What was Herman Cain doing at the debates?  I would not be offended if each party had a closed door convention of its existing and retired congressman, senators, governors, presidents and vice-presidents and selected four candidates for the primary elections.  I also would welcome the birth of a third political party.  In fact, if the far-right wingers wanted to leave the Republican Party and officially start their own party (maybe they could call it the Tea Party) I would be very, very happy.

Congratulations President Obama.  America now, more than ever, needs your leadership.  Republicans - America needs your leadership as well.  Please handle the difficult problems we are facing with honest compromise.  Do it fast – that fiscal cliff thing could cause our debt rating to be lowered yet again.  And, we are still on the path to becoming the next Greece.

2012 Voters’ Gut Check

            According to the “Federal Register Facts” issued by the Office of the Federal Register on July 15, 2012, the Code of Federal Regulations contained 163,333 pages in 2009.  That many pages and binders would take up approximately twenty-three feet of shelf space.  According to Representative Ryan’s “Roadmap to America’s Future” the tax code alone contains 70,000 pages.  Legislation and regulations have become so complicated that it is impossible for the American voter to base their vote on the facts.  Then again, voters have always voted on their visceral instincts (their gut feelings).

Our legislation and regulations have become so convoluted that it is difficult for the average voter to determine which politician’s plan makes the most sense.  To make matters worse, politicians will cite facts that indicate that the “other guy” is not telling the truth.  With such a complicated system, facts from politicians are like Mulligans from the devil – useless.  However, voters want to hear a plan for making things better.  Voters may not be able to analyze in detail the plans being offered - but they can judge whether the plan will put us in the right direction.  It is a gut feeling that works.

Americans have a feel if things are good, bad or just okay.  They gauge whether change is needed and whether they are comfortable with the change being offered.  Right now the voters are thinking that things are either bad or maybe just okay (maybe they are getting better).

Voters will consider a change ff their gut feeling is that “things” are bad and not getting better.  “Things” mostly refer to the economy but when America is feeling threatened (as we did after 9/11) “things” can be solely focused on our national security and/or national pride.  You cannot attack the United States without stirring up the American sense of justice – and a demand for retribution.  Things are not good when Americans believe that we have lost respect as the absolute world power.  However, if the matter is only our reputation and not national security or pride, then “things” that matter during an election are primarily economics.

Once the American populace has decided that things are bad enough to consider a change, then they look at the alternative.  If the alternative is something that they are comfortable with, they will make the change.  When  things are really bad, any change will do.  When things are bad but not horrible, the change has to be appealing enough to convince voters that things could be better.  This is the essence of our presidential election right now.  The Democrats are telling us: 1) that things are not that bad; 2) we are heading in the right direction, and; 3) Governor Romney is a bad choice.

Americans have felt economic pain for five years now; they know that things are not good.  In addition, we are watching radical Islamists burning American flags on our televisions.  Our ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in a terrorist attack.  It has been seven weeks and our government has still not explained how this terrorist attack was allowed to happen despite prior warnings.  The original (two-week story) that a mob erupted after watching a demeaning video only caused Americans embarrassment – even a sense of lost national pride.

The Democrats know that they cannot convince us that things are good or even “getting better”.  Therefore, they have spent the majority of their money attempting to convince us that the alternative is worse.  President Obama is much more likable.  Governor Romney is a bad person.  He is too rich to relate to the middle-class.  He would have “let Detroit go bankrupt”.  He has tax shelters in the Cayman Islands.  He did not pay his “fair share” of taxes.  He will give the wealthy tax cuts and pay for them by taxing the middle-class.  And, of course, he did so well in the debates because he lied.

The Democratic campaign has been reduced to – we feel your pain and we will protect you from the hard realities of life.  The other guys are more interested in helping the rich guys.  The Democrats are running on class-warfare because they cannot run on a record of helping the middle-class.  The Great Recession was NOT the President’s fault (as he constantly reminds us) but the recovery has been his responsibility for four years now.

Sure, most people want to work hard and get rich - but more people work to stay out of poverty than to get rich.  Working Americans mingle with other working Americans everyday.  We know who has an unemployed spouse, or a sick child.  We know who is beating the system and who is deservingly receiving help.  We know that there are too many people receiving government assistance.  We are wondering if this is because the economy is lousy or is it just easier to be on the dole than to work for a living.  There are doubts.  Is government assistance a temporary cure to our bad economy?  Or, is government assistance a permanent hindrance to economic growth?  In either case, we know that the growth of our entitlement programs is unsustainable.

In this backdrop, President Obama is offering “stay the path; we are heading in the right direction - forward”.  On the other hand, Governor Romney is offering economic growth.  He is offering solutions.  He is offering jobs.  Working Americans are getting a feel for both parties’ messages and they are getting very comfortable with the alternative.  The better the alternative looks, the worse the status quo appears.

The great thing about America is that the working class decides when the pendulum has swung too far in one direction – and they pull it back.  The middle-class gut-check will keep America the greatest country that has ever existed

2nd Presidential Debate Preview

  Do not expect this debate to be another knock-out for Governor Romney.  President Obama will come ready to play this time.  He will bring his “A” game.  If all goes according to plan, this debate will be a draw.  However, a draw in the debate is a win in the polls for Governor Romney.  It reinforces his “presidential” appearance.  Americans have known for a long time that change is needed.  They just have not been comfortable with Governor Romney.

Every time Governor Romney gets face-time with the American voter, he will make them more and more comfortable with him as President.  The town hall style of this debate will allow Governor Romney to engage with everyday Americans.  That will be a big plus for him.  Look for both Governor Romney and President Obama to walk towards the person that asks a question.  President Clinton did that and made America believe that he really did “feel our pain”.

As for the attacking, it will be more aggressive by President Obama than by Governor Romney.  President Obama is under pressure to recover from his poor performance in the first debate.  He will bring out the “47 percent” and the “where are the loophole elimination specifics?” and ‘how are you going to stop the Iranians?”  Governor Romney will not respond directly to the President on these attacks.  Instead, he will speak directly to the audience and explain his planned solutions.  Governor Romney will only look at the President when he is attacking the President.  Look for Governor Romney to raise the 23 million people out of work, the forty-something million people on food stamps, the economy growing slower than the previous quarters, and the raise of radical Islamists burning American flags and killing our Libyan diplomat.

President Obama has a tough balancing act here and he could screw it up again.  He has to demonstrate that he is the “alpha dog” in the race (after all he is already the President).  But, he has to maintain his “likability”.  It is very possible for the President to overdue his attacking and allow Governor Romney to appear as the more likable candidate.  If he spends more time talking to Governor Romney (rather than the audience) he will be losing the debate.  In fact, there is a very high likelihood that this will happen.  If it does, Romney could score a devastating win in this debate.  A win that could “seal the deal’ on this election.

Then again, it may very well be a bland, no gaff debate.  In that case, it will be a draw – which is a win in the polls for Governor Romney (but not a knock-out).

VP Debate Preview: Another Romney Victory

Rack up another big win for Governor Romney tonight.  Four years ago, Senator Obama was the new kid on the block.  He was a fresh, new face on the scene.  He offered youth, vitality, hope and change.  He had an overwhelming appeal from the youth of America.   However, he did not want to offer the full American populace the choice of an administration with zero experience.   Therefore, he selected Senator Biden to be his running mate.  Joe Biden was the adult supervision that would oversee the massive change promised by an Obama administration.  Senator Biden would make sure that nothing was broken (or at least provide such an image for the election).

Tonight, Representative Ryan will be the fresh new face.  He is the new kid on the block.  Vice President Biden will be the stodgy old white man.  President Obama has a record now.  He is no longer the fresh new kid on the block.  He no longer needs adult supervision – but he is stuck with Vice President Biden.  Worse yet, Vice President Biden’s many gaffs have made it blatantly clear that he requires more supervision than he could ever provide.  Everybody loves Vice President Biden.  He is a great guy.  He is a beer drinking Irishman from Scranton, Pennsylvania.  How could you not like him?  But who would want him to be “President Biden”?

Just look at the scene tonight.  Mute the volume and just look at the picture.  The Romney campaign already won this debate.  In a week from tonight, Governor Romney will have a growing margin of victory over the failing Obama campaign.

The First October Surprise

            The first October surprise has arrived: Obama has fizzled and Romney has sizzled.  President Obama’s “hope and change” campaign of 2008 is now a tedious - we think we’re starting to turn things around, growth is anemic, unemployment seems stuck above 8% forever, more people are on food stamps than ever before, we have no idea of how to get the deficit under control, we refuse to work with the Republicans - BUT we should not change the path we are on.  On the other hand, Governor Romney’s “growth” plan offers the hope and change that Obama has never delivered.

The tired line that the President inherited the worst recession since the Great Depression was restated for the sixteen-trillionth time (once for every dollar of our national debt).  The problem is that most Americans realize that the recession was not the President’s fault.  However, the lack of a recovery from that recession – or even a credible plan to do so – was (and remains) the President’s responsibility.  He has not delivered on this responsibility and Americans are acutely aware of this fact.

Americans like the President.  They just want him to take some responsibility for the mess he has allowed to linger.  They want him to say that he has learned from his past mistakes AND that he now has a credible solution to fix the mess.  Nobody wants to hear “stay the course”.  Note to President Obama:  Americans do not believe that everything is okay.

The optimism of the 2008 campaign is gone.  It has been replaced with a tired President with no new ideas.  Worse yet, the President either believes, or wants the American people to believe that everything is wonderful – there is no longer the need for that hope and change stuff.  Besides, President Obama is going to improve the education of some fourth grader and that superior student is going to make America more competitive in the global economy.  We just have to wait another twelve years for her to finish college.  Furthermore, we should hire thousands more teachers right now so that we will have millions of these economic stimulus package students ready to turn the economy around upon graduation in 2024.

Contrasting with President Obama’s dour outlook, Governor Romney was optimistic.  He provided a ray of hope that America can regain its economic muscle.  And, he said we could do it without throwing the downtrodden under the bus.  His message resonated because at our very core, Americans believe in America.  Governor Romney just simply stated that with a more experienced economic leader, a leader with real executive experience, we can put America back to work.  Governor Romney’s “growth” is his “hope and change” - it is his “morning in America” – it is the rebirth of his campaign.  Jobs for the American people will not only increase the middle-class standard of living, it will broaden our tax base and thereby increase tax revenues – even without raising tax rates.  “Growth” is what Americans want.  It is the hope and change that they thought President Obama had promised.  Well, if we can wait for the graduating class of 2024, maybe President Obama’s hope and change will someday, mean economic growth.

Governor Romney’s common-sense, clearly worded plans resonated with the American public.  The only person that did not understand Governor Romney appeared to be President Obama.  At one point (after the umpteenth repeating of the $5 trillion tax cut line) I thought for sure that Governor Romney was going to say: “Mr. President I have attempted to clear your confusion on that matter numerous times, I realize that you are not understanding my clear words but I am confidant that the American people watching this debate understand my position so I am not going to respond to your repetitious mistruths any longer.”  I made that very statement to the TV image of the President and I believe that millions more Americans did the same.

If Governor Romney can continue with a positive, pro-growth message, he will inspire the millions of undecided Americans to latch onto the Romney train.  And, he will get help in the next few days from the Democratic spin machine.  They will be cranking out negative messages claiming that Romney was dishonest in his debate remarks.  The Democrats cannot help themselves.  They believe that they have to do damage control.  Unfortunately, the horse has left the barn and the damage control will just be the blimp that provides real-time video of the galloping horse.  The blimp cannot catch the horse – it can only provide a different angle to view the horse.  But the blimp will be filled with the caustic Obama campaign manager Stephanie Cutter’s commentary of negativity.  It will be a stark contrast to Governor Romney’s positive message.  It will harm the President even further because Americans are looking for civility in our politics.  Governor Romney oozes class. Stephanie Cutter does not.

Political bickering is not going to win a single vote.  So Governor Romney needs to stay positive and he needs to give the Democrats all the rope they need to hang themselves.  Stephanie Cutter knows how to do that very well.  Then there is the upcoming Vice Presidential debate next week.  Can you imagine Vice President Biden trying to draw blood from Representative Ryan?   Looks like Governor Romney will be enjoying a few weeks of good news.

●      ●      ●

Other observations from last night’s first presidential debate that contributed to the President’s poor performance – and Romney’s stunning large margin of victory: 1) Romney was likable, even personable; 2) Obama was not, he appeared to be angry; 3) Romney had command of the details; 4) Obama did not; 5) Romney was enthusiast; 6) Obama was not; 7) Romney looked right into Obama’s eyes and said, your policies have failed; 8) Obama looked down at the floor and kept repeating accusations that Romney clearly refuted – it appeared as though Obama was not listening to the discussion.

First Debate Preview

               In a nutshell, Governor Romney has to draw a tie and President Obama has to win big.  Therefore, Governor Romney is in the driver's seat for the first debate.

If Governor Romney ekes out a win by a slight margin, or even draws a tie: he wins.  It makes him “presidential” because it will be his first time sharing the stage with the actual President.  The polls would tighten and there would no longer be a clear front-runner.  This would be a good outcome for Governor Romney.  It would allow him to play offense – rather than the defense he has been playing for the past two weeks.

A clear win by President Obama would continue the race with Governor Romney playing defense – and falling further and further behind.  However, the likelihood of a big win for President Obama is very small.  President Obama has a horrible record, and he has not proposed any new policies to fix our economic mess.  His campaign to date has consisted of calling Governor Romney a "bad man".  Governor Romney will refute the “bad man” attacks just by standing on the same stage as the President.  President Obama cannot refute his record and lack of new policies to move us “forward”.

So chances are; we are looking at a draw – but that is still a win for Governor Romney.  But what if Governor Romney scores a big win?

If Governor Romney demonstrates that he has a command of the economy and domestic policy (the subject matter for the first debate) and establishes that President Obama’s policies have been responsible for the lack of a recovery – he could win the first debate decisively.  He would, therefore, take control of the race.  Governor Romney could end the first debate as the front-runner.  This would really shake things up.  And, it is very possible.  However, Governor Romney has to go big.  He has to repeatedly refer to the sluggish recovery, the persistently high unemployment rate, the ever-growing debt, the impact the debt will have on our national defense, etc.  And he has to link President Obama’s policies (or lack thereof) to all of these problems.

It is time for Governor Romney to tell President Obama:  “I agree Mr. President, the recession was not your fault, but recovering from it has been your responsibility for the last four years.  What have you done?  Why should you be given another four years?  Americans are not looking for bold, persistent experimentation that you called for in your nomination acceptance speech.  They are looking for solutions – not experiments.”

Forget asking if “you are better off than you were four years ago?”  Instead, ask: “Is America better off than it was four years ago?  Has the economy improved, are we safer from terrorism, are we “liked” by more radical Islamists?  Where do you think we will be in four years if we do not change course?”

Governor Romney has to be crisp with specific plans of action that he will take to grow the economy and create jobs.  It will be difficult to accomplish a full “economic speech” in a debate format – but, for a big win, he must do it.  He has to provide specifics that people can believe.  For example, robotic manufacturing is developing at a rapid rate and this technology will allow America to compete against the $2 per hour labor rates in China. One American worker will be able to produce the same as one-hundred Chinese workers with this new technology.  Governor Romney’s administration will help business invest in these technologies.  We will also become completely energy self-sufficient – and thereby make America a more cost-effective place to manufacture.  We will reduce the taxes placed on the products we export.  We will turn the tables on our balance-of-trade.  We will stop exporting our wealth to foreign countries who lend us money to buy their products.

Yes, there will be fewer people working in our manufacturing plants because of technology but it will be more than if all the manufacturing is done in China.  And, by creating a surplus in our balance-of-trade, we will bring wealth back to America - wealth that will be spent on new cars, new homes, more entertainment and more services than ever.  Bringing wealth to America will allow us to grow the service sector of our economy – and these will be good paying jobs for Americans.

With robotic factories, maybe the work that Steve Jobs of Apple said (to the President) “was never coming back” – will come back.  Americans will be able to buy iPhones made in America.

Governor Romney has to (in bullet statements) establish the case for our runaway entitlement costs and how his plan will bring them under control and allow us to bring our national debt under control.  He has to talk about Medicare and what it will do to the national debt.  He has to make sure that Americans understand that doing nothing is not an option.  Doing nothing is President Obama’s plan and it is suicide.  President Obama’s plan is to replace Medicare with Obamacare.  Unfortunately, changing the name of the program does nothing to control costs.

The first debate will most likely end in a draw.  And, that will be a win for Governor Romney.  In the unlikely event that someone does score a big win, it would most likely be Governor Romney.  In either case, expect Governor Romney to be playing offense on Thursday.

Note to Republicans – Stop Panicking

Governor Romney has had a bad week.  The forty-seven percent statement has caused some damage.  Worse yet, the people in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida believe that President Obama is doing a good job with the economy.  And, just to scare the Republicans some more, President Obama’s poll numbers keep climbing while Governor Romney’s keep falling.

Republican pundits from Peggy Noonan and Joe Scarborough to Laura Ingraham have been very vocal in pointing out the ineptness of Governor Romney’s campaign.  The Democrats are drooling.  Governor Romney’s plan was to make the vote a referendum on President Obama’s record.  Now the Democrats are now making it a referendum on Governor Romney’s qualifications. 

According to the Democrats: Governor Romney’s fourteen percent tax rate demonstrates that he is out of touch with the middle class;  the forty-seven percent of Americans being victims, statement shows that Governor Romney does not care about the middle class; and  Governor Romney’s non-diplomatic statements in England and Israel demonstrate his lack of foreign affairs acumen.

Anyone watching the news this week would assume that the party is over, it’s time to call it a day, Governor Romney is toast.  EXCEPT: there are still forty-four days left in this election campaign.  In politics, forty-four days is a lifetime.  The Muslim world could continue to spew hate filled demonstrations against the United States. The stock market could take a significant down-turn. Or, Governor Romney could start talking about the issues.  At least Governor Romney can control one of those potential game changers.

It appears as though an election for the most likable person will favor President Obama.  An election about the issues COULD favor Governor Romney.  The use of the word “COULD’ to fudge the possible advantage for Governor Romney is needed.   Governor Romney has not communicated a vision for his presidency.  Sure, he has let us all know that he is a businessperson that understands economics.  That is great.  Now if he could just speak in a manner that allows the middle class to understand the economy – and how he will fix it; he may just see the polls start to change in his direction.

The original plan of making this a referendum on President Obama has not gained traction.  It is now time for Plan B.  Does Governor Romney have a Plan B?  For the country’s sake, let us all hope that he does. 

President Obama has a Plan B.  He calls it the American Jobs Act.  It is a bill that he proposed earlier this year that the Republicans did not allow to go anywhere.  The fundamental underpinnings of this plan are to invest in America’s infrastructure and to provide federal assistance to local governments to hire more teachers and first responders.  President Obama stated that the private sector has been steadily adding jobs but the problem is that the government has been cutting jobs.  All the economy needs is more government employees and some more stimulus spending to build roads, railways, and runways.  If that is President Obama’s Plan B, Governor Romney has to be able to do better.

We do not need more teachers, firemen and policemen.  We need jobs that add to the tax base – not jobs that are paid for by our taxes.  We cannot afford to build new roads, railways and runways to make it easier for China to distribute their products in America.  President Obama can tell China: “Hey you didn’t build that business – America did it for you.” 

We need to invest in the private industry that can build things that we export.  The technology of robotic manufacturing is exploding.  Leveraging this technology will allow us to compete against the $2 per hour labor costs in China, and Mexico.  It will create real, tangible products that we can sell to our foreign competitors.  We can start to bring money back to the United States instead of shipping it across the sea for cheap imports.  Governor Romney knows how to do this.  All he has to do is make Americans understand that this is our way out of our economic mess.

Governor Romney also knows that a strong defense and clear communications of America’s red lines will not be liked in the Muslim world – but they will be respected.  It is time for America to be less liked and more respected.  That brings this discussion back to where it started: we must elect the candidate that is not the most liked but the candidate that deserves the most respect for his actions.  At this point, neither candidate has earned that respect.

Note to President Obama: please prepare your Plan C.  Americans are looking for creative solutions.  We do not want to continue down the same path of misery that you call “forward”.  That path has been leading us nowhere for four years.  Besides if Governor Romney does summon up the courage to articulate a clear vision for America’s future, you will be the one panicking.  It is in America’s best interest for both candidates to develop creative solutions to our problems.  Maybe, just maybe, we could see some bipartisan leadership after the elections to put the best ideas of the two plans to work for America.