Wake Up and Smell the Coffee – Russia Can Win in the Middle East

I last reported (see the previous blog entry) that Russia has economic and political motives that are driving its actions in Syria. I also envisioned that Russia’s motives would be best served by the total destabilization of the region with Russia then eliminating American influence in the region.  This would ultimately result in Russia being the only super power with influence in the Middle East.

Since my last report there have been statements made by various people, including the President of the United States, that Russia cannot win any territory by merely bombing. The talking heads have stated that you must have a ground force to follow through after bombings to take and maintain control of territory. And the pundits say: since the Russians are not putting boots on the ground, they cannot win the battle and they will be eternally bogged down in Syria.

Why then has the United States been bombing in Syria for a year now? We have not put any boots on the ground.  Based on the pundits’ logic, we too are doomed to an eternal bog in Syria.

The pundits are correct. We are doomed to remain bogged down in Syria.  Not only do we not have boots on the ground, we also do not have any partners of strength with boots on the ground. Our game plan was to train Syrian rebels that would have been our boots on the ground. Thus far, this strategy has not worked very well. And, there is no hope in sight anytime soon.

Funny how the talking heads inaccurately depict the Russians as making a mistake – the talking heads have not yet identified that America has been making the same mistake for over a year.

The Russians are not as naive as we are.  They are not foolish enough to waste bombs without following up with ground forces. They are following the United States' strategy (bomb and have others do the grunt work on the ground).  The difference between Russia’s plan and the American plan is that the Russians actually have boots on the ground with strength. The Syrian government’s army is able to follow through after Russia’s bombings to take and control territory. For good measure, the Syrian government is being assisted by Iranian soldiers and militia men from Hezbollah.

A good case can be made that the Syrian army along with an estimated 2,000 Iranian soldiers and an unknown number of Hezbollah militia men is a stronger ground force than the five American trained local rebels that have taken up arms against Syrian President al-Assad. Furthermore, the way things work in the Middle East, success and power projects to growth. Therefore, small successes by the Russians and the Syrian army will result in a growth of the Syrian army.  Thus, the ability to build on success and take more and more territory.

The Russians can win at this game and it is time that someone start taking the situation seriously and inoculate the remainder of the region from Russian influence before it is too late. Again, I refer to the blog entry just prior to this one for a suggested strategy that America should follow. The strategy will stabilize a region that has the potential to unravel out of control and potentially spawn World War III.  If followed, the strategy would also reposition America as the world’s true super power and expose Russia as a super bully, not the super power it pretends to be.