Focus is on the Senate – Are You Joking?

            Fear is creeping in.  To allay this fear, the Senate is pretending to be taking over the shutdown/debt ceiling negotiations.  An attempt to strike a bi-partisan deal (in the Senate) before the markets open up Monday morning is now under way.  Who cares if the Senate develops a bi-partisan plan?  The President has bloodied the noses of the House Republicans and they are holding a grudge.  They may be putting their egos ahead of what is good for America – but that is where we are.

Furthermore, the markets have already been spooked.  Nothing short of a bill signed into law before 9:30 AM EST Monday can rebuild the market’s confidence in the United States government.  Nobody knows what problems will be caused in the economy due to the implementation of Obamacare – but everyone knows there will be problems.  Does anybody have confidence that our government can take the steps necessary to mitigate any economic damage or to correct the unfairnesses that are sure to be found during Obamacare’s implementation?  No!  Everybody expects the problems to be used as headlines for the “I told you so” stories and then used as bargaining chips to whittle away Obamacare – not to help settle out market disruptions.  Our government is broke.  This is not an atmosphere that promotes economic stability.  Forget about economic growth.

The above paragraph predicts despicable behavior; behavior that would put a politician's ego ahead of what is good for America.  Hmm, sounds like what the Democrats have done the past two weeks with the Republican created government shutdown.  Could anyone have imagined that the families of our fallen military personnel would be used as political pawns?  Just imagine the politics that will be played with Obamacare's implementation.  Maybe a drastic social change such as Obamacare should not be rammed through without bi-partisan support.

The Tea Party has one more punch to throw before they get knocked out.  They will say that the President said he would negotiate; they were prepared to negotiate – but the President reneged on his promise to negotiate.  With their egos clinging on the ropes, the Tea Party will make one more attempt to somehow diminish Obamacare.  They will pass a bill to reopen the government and to increase the spending limit – but that bill will include some restraint on Obamacare.

Poor old Speaker Boehner will have to allow one more stupid vote on yet another stupid bill.  He has to do this so that the Tea Party finally hears the roar of America’s outrage over their self-righteous insensitivity.  Those roars will be heard, the Tea Party will let go of the rope and fall onto the ring.

After this one last Tea Party indignity, Speaker Boehner will hold a vote on whatever bi-partisan plan that the Senate has developed.  The bi-partisan bill will pass in the House with all the Democrats (200) and slightly more than a majority of the Republicans (only 17 of the 235 are needed).  The vote will identify which Republicans will soon leave the Party to officially form their own Party.  The Tea Party will become an official party in American politics.  Then it will experience a slow death over the next five years and vanish.  The will be remembered as the 21^st century’s version of the Bull Moose Party.  During these five years, the Democrats will govern with moderate Republicans and progress will be made.  The kinks in Obamacare will be ironed out in a spirit of cooperation within this new coalition.  (Contrary to the predictions above that assumes the Tea Party stays entrenched within the Republican Party – which of course is more likely.  Please allow me to daydream into some fantasy world of optimism.)

Continuing my optimistic fantasy:  The Republican Party will grow in numbers as the moderate conservatives who have been dismayed with the Party’s dance to the far right will come back home.  Eventually, the Tea Party will learn of the need to compromise and will rejoin the Republican Party as well.  This situation will make it difficult for the Republicans to win the presidency in 2016.  That means that the Democrats will appoint several new members to the Supreme Court.  A strong majority of liberals on the Supreme Court is not good.  Maybe the new coalition will agree to more moderate appointments.  I hope so.

Consider the above discussion the spaghetti map of possible hurricane strikes.  The spaghetti lines show that the damage may be in one area or another – but damage will occur.  That is where we are; economic damage is guaranteed, how it unfolds is yet to be determined.