The Shutdown-Showdown and the Cruzification of the Republican Party

            Whoever coined the term “Cruzification,” congratulations!  It captures the Republicans conundrum.  However, there is noting Christ-like about the Republicans behavior.  The Cruzification the Republicans are about to endure is their own fault.

Here are the priorities that the President is addressing during the current debt-ceiling/shutdown negotiations: 1) the American people, 2) the world economy, 3) our long-term debt problem, 4) maintaining Obamacare on its current course, 5) assuring that he never has to submit to the Tea Party’s demands again.

The Republicans first stated that their only priority was to kill Obamacare.  This position caused the government shutdown and the Republicans favorability ratings fell to historical lows.  The Republicans then decided that all they wanted was to negotiate with the President.  In turn, the President said he would negotiate only if the Republicans pass a no-strings-attached continuing resolution (to reopen government) and a no-strings-attached increase to our debt ceiling (to allow the United States to borrow the money it needs to keep spending more than it taxes). 

The President’s “no-negotiations” and the Republicans “we just want to talk” was last week’s standoff.  Americans were rightly frustrated.

To cool down the situation, the President said he was willing to talk to the Republicans.  The Republicans took this to mean that the President was willing to negotiate – he is not.  The President re-affirmed that he will only accept clean (no-strings attached) bills to reopen government and to raise our debt limit.  The President has been very clear that he will not discuss other issues until after the passage of these clean bills.  If the Republicans would offer solutions to our debt and spending problems, the President would probably consider them.  However, the Tea Party cannot control themselves and they will surely push for a major slap-down of Obamacare.

The Republicans have not been listening to the President.  They (or at least the Tea Party) believe that they are now negotiating.  Republican Congressmen are drafting legislation to define the strings they want attached to the bills.  Unfortunately, there are ideologues in the Tea Party that do not understand public opinion, do not understand that they are hurting America and do not care.  They believe that their cause is so pure that they are doing what is right for America.  It would appear that the title “Tea Party” is a synonym for self-righteousness.

Next week the Republicans will state that the President has reneged on his offer to negotiate – when he never offered to negotiate.  The Republicans will allow themselves the delusion that they are right and that the President’s “not negotiating” will “poll” well for the Republicans.  The Republicans do not get it – Americans do not care about the sausage making.  Americans just want solutions.

The President could have achieved all his priorities except his last priority (removing the Tea Party’s influence) through the normal course of business.  However, the Republicans did not want to follow the normal course of business.  They wanted to inject Obamacare into the budget and debt-ceiling bills.  This gave the President the opening he needed to cut the legs out from under the Tea Party (and the Republicans).

Americans are blaming the Republicans for the government shutdown and for the potential to default on our debt.  Therefore, the President is holding all the cards.  He can push this battle right to the edge of the cliff and wait for the Republicans to blink.  Unfortunately, the self-righteousness Tea Party Republicans will not blink.  The stock market will drop two-thousand points, Americans will be distraught and the Republicans will be rendered impotent.

Another possibility is that Speaker Boehner will blink before this catastrophe occurs and allows a vote to be taken in the House.  If so, enough Republicans (and all 200 Democrats) will vote for the President’s “clean bills.”  Either scenario will split the Republicans along their intra-party lines; Tea Party versus non-Tea Party members.  The Republicans will not reunite after this event and by default; the Democrats will be the majority in the House.  There will no longer be a divided government – just a divided party.  The Tea Party will never again be able to hold the President “hostage.”

The President can do this because he also has another card up his sleeve – the Executive Order card that will prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt.  The President has repeatedly stated that he does not hold such a card – but he does.  He just doesn’t want anybody to believe that he would use it.  After all, his priority is to tear apart the Republican Party.  So after the market crashes but before the United States defaults on its debt, the President will use the Executive Order card.  The sun will rise in the East the following day and the President will be sitting on solid ground.

The President knows very well that the entire country will support him if and when he issues an Executive Order to assure that the 14^th Amendment of the Constitution is not violated.  That Amendment states that the debt of the United States shall not be questioned.  This will result in some Tea Party Republicans accusing the President of violating Article 1, Section 7 of the Constitution that requires the House of Representatives to appropriate all funds to be spent by the federal government.  The media will sell their products by claiming that we are experiencing a “Constitutional Crises.”  The Republicans will impeach the President in the House of Representatives.  The impeachment will not be ratified in the Senate and, in the end, the American people will think even less of the Republicans then they do now (if that is possible).

One way or the other, the Republicans will lose this fight (actually they have already lost).  The world economy will lose as well.  Even though the United States will never default on its debt, just getting close to the possibility of default will cause another lowering of America’s credit rating.  This time, the lower credit rating will result in higher interest rates.  The government shutdown will also impact economic growth.  The combined effect of the shutdown imposed slowdown, and higher interest rates will push us back into a recession.  With the rest of the world economy so fragile, the American recession will have a domino effect on the rest of the world.

The President must be assessing the very situation that this blog describes.  If so, he must be calculating that the power that he will derive from the decimation of the Tea Party will be so enormous that he will be able to push through legislation to rescue the economy - can you say stimulus number two?

It is so frustrating to watch the silliness in Washington – especially when you know how it will end.  Unless; a Republican leader will stand up and reign in the Tea Party.  Or, Senator Cruz stands up and capitulates.  Assuming Senator Cruz will not capitulate, another Tea Party leader (say Senator Paul) could make a speech that sends the message that it is okay to let the clean bills go through without any Obamacare stipulations at this time; one of those “live to fight another day” speeches.