The Mother of All Government Shutdowns

            The main stream media is playing the current government shutdown as just another Democrat-Republican game of chicken.  The message unfolding is that this is just a Tea Party act of immaturity.  Hello?  Does anybody understand what is at stake here?  Do the Republicans understand that they are playing with fire?  The media is playing this shutdown as meaningless.  Economists are predicting that it will have a minor impact on our already sluggish recovery.  The impact will not be big enough to worry about unless it is protracted – but nobody believes that it will be protracted. 

HELLO?  IS ANYBODY PAYING ATTENTION TO THE UNDERLYING ISSUE?  THIS SHUTDOWN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE AMERICA RAPIDLY AND FOREVER.

The Republicans are trying to demonstrate a win – but if they “win” it will be their biggest loss in history.  The Republicans wants our federal government to stop providing heath care benefits to all its employees.  By the way, the federal government is the largest employer in our great nation.  If (or when) the federal government stops providing heath care benefits to its employees, a big flashing green light will be sent to every business in America.  That green light will tell businesses that it is okay to stop providing health care benefits to their employees too.  Do you see the big deal now?

Wow!  Think about how that would change America.  Businesses would no longer pay $16 thousand per year to provide health benefits to a single employee and his or her family.  Instead the business would pay the $2,000 fine for not providing the benefit.  If it’s good enough for Uncle Sam, it’s good enough for the blue-chips too.

In an instant, millions of Americans will have to purchase their own health insurance.  In that same instant, panic will cause Congress to socialize health care faster than Speaker Boehner sun tans.  The Democrats end-game of providing socialized health care to all Americans will be achieved – in months instead of the current plan of years.

Big business would think they have hit the jackpot at first - believing that the Republicans got them out of the health care business.  That sense of elation will cease to exist when they realize that they will be taxed in some manner in order to pay for all the socialized health care.  Can you say Value Added Tax (VAT)?  In the long run we will be better off because the VAT will reduce our cost of exported goods and therefore make America more competitive in the global marketplace.  It is the period of uncertainty between the realization that something has to be done to fund the nationwide socialized health care and the final solution that will cause havoc in the markets.

I view myself as a moderate-conservative.  However, I support the Republicans for what they are doing (even if they do not know what they are doing).  I believe that we need to radically change health care in America.  Obamacare did nothing to bring the cost of health care down.  It provides access to more Americans but it is also making health care less affordable.  America cannot afford the Cadillac plan for every American.  What we can afford is the bare-bones plan – the one that the Republicans are unknowingly charting us towards.  More affluent Americans will still be able to purchase “umbrella” coverage to assure that they get special treatment.  But, every American will have the dignity of basic health services.

It is my estimation that President Obama and the Democrats understand the severity of this issue; and that the Republicans do not.  I believe that the President’s team is stalling in caving in because not because they do not want the Republicans’ offer – but because they want to develop the lift-off plan.  The President’s team is pulling all-nighters planning how to accept this gift from the Republicans and turn it into their dream without causing panic in the markets.  Good for them – that is their job.  They just have to accept the Republicans' gift before the Republicans' figure out their blunders.

Expect the Democrats to humbly capitulate before the end of the week (sooner if the Republicans start to realize what they are doing).  The Republicans and the stock market will be jubilant.  Then in two weeks, a lot of big businesses will start announcing that they are no longer providing health care.  The trend will snowball.  Then, the Democrats will be the jubilant ones.  The whole country will be heading to the Obamacare websites and Congress will begin the official socialization legislation.  Let's face it, with most Americans qualifying for tax credits to purchase the health care they now get from their employers, something will have to be done.

Mr. President, please forgive me for letting the cat out of the bag.  Sooner or later somebody (other then you and your team) would have figured out how dumb those Republican Tea Party wing-nuts are.  Now, let us all strap on our seat belts and hope the markets do not crash and burn. 

Oh, that debt-ceiling thing – doesn’t seem all that important anymore.  Note to the economists predicting only a minor impact from the shutdown; please revisit your assumptions.  And, give the President some help on how to ride this wave home without an economic wipe-out.  I like the Hawaiian simile for President Obama.

           President Obama may go down in history as the transformational statesman that his campaign had promised.  History will not recall the ineptitude of the Tea Party.