What Will Obamacare do to The Economy?

           Anecdotal information is dripping out of the Obamacare faucet.  Three-hundred-thousand Floridians have had their health insurance cancelled because it does not meet the new Obamacare standards.  Another one-hundred-sixty- thousand Californians have heard the same news.  Story after story tells of some individual learning that their existing coverage is no longer available and their new options are tens or even hundreds of dollars per month more than their old plans.

Last night on Fox news, Megan Kelly claimed to have an IRS bulletin dated from July-2010 that estimated between forty and seventy-percent of individual plans would be cancelled when Obamacare is implemented.  This was estimated to mean that somewhere between ten and sixteen million people will have their insurance cancelled before the end of the year.  These are only the people that purchase health insurance for them selves.

A few nights ago, Kirston Powers of Fox news reported that her health insurance plan (in New York State) had been cancelled.  She went onto the Obamacare website and found a replacement.  She stated that her monthly premium changed from $150 to $290.  Ms. Powers further stated that she is happy to pay more for her health care if that meant that some other Americans would be provided with health insurance at rates that they can afford.  I applaud Ms. Powers for her generosity.  But, she did not decide on her own to make a contribution to the community clinic.  The new law is taking that extra one-hundred and forty bucks a month from her whether she is happy or not.  Furthermore, is it just me, or has nobody else heard of the good stories about somebody having their premiums reduced on the Obamacare exchange?  Yes, I have heard that some people that could not get insurance before, due to pre-existing conditions, have finally been able to obtain health insurance.  That is good.  However, I am thinking that that is where Ms. Powers’ one-hundred-forty dollars per month are going – to cover the costs of the high-risk-new-enrollees. 

When I think about that from an actuarial viewpoint, I think that everybody (on average) is going to have to pay more for the high-risk-new-enrollees.  Is there any other extrapolation that can be made?

  Are things better for employees who get their health insurance from their employers?  Not that I have heard.  There have also been stories of companies informing their employees of large increases to their paycheck deductions for health insurance due to the new Obamacare requirements.  Very large companies that are self-insured do not have to abide by the Obamacare rules, so their employees will not (presumably) see large increases in their paycheck deductions.  At least I do not think so.  But, I do not know.  Do you?

We are rolling out the largest government program in generations (maybe the largest ever) and I do not know where to look for the answers regarding its impact on the economy.  Is healthcare going to cost every worker more – while more Americans get free health care?  Where is all the tax money coming from for the health care tax credits being given to anyone earning less than 400% of the poverty level?  Will the smaller paychecks result in an economic slowdown?  And, at this point in our non-recovery, recovery; will this added slowdown be enough to push us into another recession?

I watched the White House daily press briefing yesterday and heard The President's Press Secretary, Mr. Carney, admit that, yes, some people (contrary to the President’s promises) will not be able to keep the health plans that they were happy with.  However, Mr. Carney pointed out that the plans involved were inferior and that, in the long run, the people that lose those plans will be better off.  Really?  Who makes that choice for the individual – the President, our government, the insurance companies?  Whoever the decision maker is; are they considering what the individual can afford? Or; what each individual wants to purchase?  Maybe when we are nearing sixty years of age, we do not want maternity benefits or free contraceptives.

By the way, those poor employees at the self-insured companies will be stuck with what the President’s spokesman, Mr. Carney, has stated to be inferior health insurance plans.  But, they will not have to pay more for them.  Nor will hey help shoulder the cost of the high-risk-new-enrollees.  You see; the really big corporations (that are self-insured) and their employees are exempt from Obamacare.  Therefore, the individual purchasers and the small to mid-sized businesses of America are shouldering the load.

I am very confused by the slow drip of anecdotal information.  Please somebody provide a macroeconomic impact statement of what this new law is going to do to us.  When I extrapolate the anecdotal information on my own, I do not see a happy ending.  Am I wrong?  I hope so, but nobody is talking.  Is this not the eight-hundred pound elephant in the room?